If you're building anything on prediction markets — a bot, a dashboard, an AI agent — your first decision is: Kalshi or Polymarket? I've built on both. Here's what I wish I knew upfront.
The Basics
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Regulation | CFTC (US) | Unregulated (crypto) |
| Settlement | USD bank account | USDC on Polygon |
| Auth | RSA-PSS signatures | EIP-712 + HMAC |
| Main volume | Sports (90%) | Crypto + geopolitics |
| Rate limits | ~100 req/10s | 15,000 req/10s |
Market Discovery
Kalshi uses Series → Events → Markets. Search by series ticker:
curl "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/series?include_volume=true"
Polymarket uses Events → Markets with the Gamma API:
curl "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events?active=true&limit=50"
Orderbook Data
Both expose full orderbook depth. The key difference:
Kalshi returns YES/NO dollar prices:
{ "yes_bid_dollars": "0.48", "no_bid_dollars": "0.53" }
YES ask = 100 - NO bid. Mental math required.
Polymarket returns direct probabilities:
{ "bids": [{"price": "0.48", "size": "500"}], "asks": [{"price": "0.52", "size": "300"}] }
Price History
Kalshi: authenticated candlestick API, OHLC, custom date ranges. Requires API keys.
Polymarket: public OHLC endpoint, no auth:
curl "https://clob.polymarket.com/ohlc?asset_id=TOKEN_ID&startTs=1710000000&fidelity=1h"
Liquidity Comparison
In practice, across 18 market categories:
- Crypto: Polymarket wins (5-10x more depth)
- Macro/geopolitics: Roughly equal
- Sports: Kalshi dominates
The Practical Answer
Don't choose one. Use both. The best edges come from cross-venue comparison.
I built SimpleFunctions CLI for exactly this — one command to query both:
npm install -g @spfunctions/cli
sf scan "oil recession" # search both venues
sf book KXWTIMAX-26DEC31-T135 # Kalshi orderbook depth
sf book --poly "oil price" # Polymarket orderbook
sf liquidity crypto # cross-venue liquidity scan
It's open source, handles all the auth/normalization, and also has an MCP server for Claude Code:
claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp
What are you building on prediction markets? Happy to answer questions.
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