If you're job hunting as a developer in 2026, the market feels contradictory: postings are up, yet entry-level openings are scarce. Both are true. Here are the numbers that explain it, all from primary sources (Indeed Hiring Lab, the New York Fed, CompTIA, BLS).
1. Postings are recovering, from a very low base
Indeed's software development postings index (Feb 2020 = 100) stood at 78.9 on October 16, 2026. A year earlier it was 65.0, so that's up about 21%. The low point was 61.1 in May 2025.
That still leaves postings about 21% below February 2020 and roughly two-thirds below the February 2022 peak (233.8). If you got your first job in 2021, that market is gone.
2. Software is still one of the weakest fields on Indeed
Of Indeed's 47 occupational sectors, software development ranked 6th lowest. All US postings sit at 103.8, slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Mechanical engineering is at 169 and electrical engineering at 152.
3. The recovery is for senior engineers
In Q1 2026, 69.3% of US software postings on Indeed were senior roles and just 4.5% were entry-level. Across all US jobs, roughly 46% of postings are entry-level. Of the growth in software postings from May 2025 to May 2026, 71% came from senior roles.
4. New grads have it hardest
Computer science graduates have the 4th-highest unemployment rate of 73 majors (7.0%) in the New York Fed's data, even though they earn the 2nd-highest starting pay.
5. AI is reshaping demand, not erasing it
Jobs with "AI" in the title drove 37% of the posting growth. Overall tech unemployment is 3.3%, and BLS still projects software developer employment to grow about 10% through 2035.
6. One signal to watch
Indeed's new postings for software (ads posted in the past week) averaged 82.8 in Jul–Sep 2026, down 6.6% from Apr–Jun, while total postings kept rising. If that continues, more of the "growth" is ads staying open longer, not fresh openings. One quarter isn't a trend yet.
What this means if you're looking
- Junior: the scarce thing is the entry rung, not the profession. Widen your radius to hybrid and nearby cities, and look at adjacent entry points (QA/test automation, support engineering, internal tools, data roles, apprenticeships). Anything that makes you look less "entry-level" helps: a project real people use, freelance work, or prior experience framed as problems you solved.
- Experienced: demand is back, especially for engineers who can show AI-tool fluency in interviews.
The full version with charts, sources and a monthly update is on StackChief: Software Engineer Job Market 2026: What the Data Shows Right Now.
This post was written with the help of AI, as a summary of the StackChief article above. Every figure was checked against that article and its sources (Indeed data through Oct 16, 2026).
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