The GENIUS Act was signed into law in July 2025. Open USD (OUSD) launched in June 2026 with 140+ partners. The US national debt just hit $39.27 trillion. The Fed's own projections show 3.6% PCE inflation.
And gold is at an all-time high.
Everyone talks about "inflation hedges" but nobody actually shows you the numbers. So I built a spreadsheet that does exactly that.
The landscape has changed
Here's what's different in 2026:
Regulated stablecoins are now Treasury-backed. The GENIUS Act requires stablecoin issuers to back tokens 1:1 with US Treasuries. This means USDC, OUSD, and their regulated competitors aren't just "crypto" anymore — they're effectively digital Treasury instruments. Tether alone holds ~$141 billion in US Treasuries, making it the 17th largest holder globally (ahead of South Korea).
The old inflation playbook is breaking. Gold has historically been the go-to inflation hedge, but its 5-year real return (after inflation) tells a different story. Bitcoin has outperformed everything on a nominal basis but carries 65% volatility. TIPS are designed for inflation but their real returns depend on when you bought them.
The Mar-a-Lago Accord — proposed by CEA Chair Stephen Miran — suggests the US may pursue a controlled dollar devaluation strategy. If that happens, the traditional inflation hedge calculus changes entirely.
What the data actually shows
I pulled 8 years of data across 7 asset classes: gold, Bitcoin, stablecoins (USDC/OUSD), S&P 500, TIPS, REITs, and a 50/50 gold/BTC mix. Here's what jumped out:
Real returns (nominal return minus inflation):
- Bitcoin leads on nominal returns but gets crushed by volatility
- Gold beats inflation in most years but the margin is thinner than most people think
- Stablecoins (with Treasury-backed yields) are the only asset class with near-zero negative real return risk
- TIPS do exactly what they're designed to do — track inflation
- The 50/50 gold/BTC mix actually has the best risk-adjusted real return over the full period
The inflation scenario analysis is the most revealing:
- In low inflation (2%), equities and Bitcoin win
- In high inflation (6%+), gold and Bitcoin dominate
- In stagflation, gold is the clear winner and equities get crushed
- In deflation, stablecoins and TIPS preserve capital while everything else falls
Why this matters now
The stablecoin market cap just hit $320 billion. Standard Chartered projects $2 trillion by 2028. The GENIUS Act creates an entirely new asset class — Treasury-backed digital dollars — that didn't exist during previous inflation cycles.
This changes the inflation hedge landscape in ways most investors haven't fully processed yet. A regulated stablecoin with 4-5% yield, zero volatility, and Treasury backing competes directly with gold as a capital preservation tool. But it doesn't compete with gold during high-inflation spikes.
The right answer depends on the inflation scenario you're planning for — and that's exactly what the spreadsheet helps you figure out.
The spreadsheet
I built a 6-sheet comparison calculator that lets you:
- See real (inflation-adjusted) returns across 7 asset classes over 8 years
- Adjust your own portfolio allocation and see projected returns
- Compare performance across 6 different inflation scenarios
- Access the raw historical data (gold prices, BTC prices, market caps, yields)
- Understand every term and formula in the glossary
It's live on my Gumroad store for $14 AUD.
No opinions. No hype. Just the numbers, transparently calculated, so you can make your own call.
Synthos by Alex Reynolds
synthos@agentmail.to
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