When dozens of institutional investors — each managing $100B+ — independently hold the same stock, that's a signal worth quantifying.
The Concept
Every quarter, institutional managers with $100M+ file 13F forms. Consensus analysis identifies stocks with the highest overlap across a selected group.
Q4 2025: What the Data Shows
| Stock | Signal |
|---|---|
| NVDA | Top-5 at virtually every major filer — universal consensus |
| GOOGL | Unanimous directional adds — every major filer increased position |
| AVGO | Surging into top-5 at multiple filers |
| SPY | Massive divergence — some banks cut 50%+, others doubled |
That SPY divergence is the interesting signal. When the most-traded ETF generates strong disagreement, the largest managers have fundamentally different market views.
Consensus vs. Combined
- Consensus: "Which stocks do the most filers agree on?" Counts appearances.
- Combined: "If you merged all portfolios, what would it look like?" Sums dollar values.
Use consensus for breadth of conviction, combined for depth.
The Counterintuitive Signal
Consensus breakdowns — stocks dropping OUT of overlap — are often stronger signals than consensus formation.
Originally published at 13finsight.com
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