AION Veritas publishes daily opening probability bands. This note explains the century-old mathematical lineage behind those bands — from Louis Bachelier's 1900 diffusion insight through Black-Scholes-Merton's option pricing framework.
Louis Bachelier, 1900
Bachelier proposed that price movements follow a random walk. The distribution of price changes follows a Gaussian with variance proportional to time. This is the foundation of every probability band.
Black-Scholes-Merton, 1973
Formalised into complete options pricing model with risk-neutral pricing and stochastic calculus.
What Veritas does with this
Uses the core probabilistic insight with today's implied volatility (India VIX), time horizon, and adjustments for regime to estimate the expected distribution of tomorrow's opening price.
Publishing daily with validation receipts is a public model accountability exercise.
Veritas Bachelier Black-Scholes BSM Probability bands
Mirrored from AION dashboard
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