Spent the last few months reading shutdown posts. Not the advice posts. The actual failures.
The pattern was always the same. And it wasnt what I expected.
The Numbers That Broke Me
One founder got 2,600 free users in four months. Zero paying customers.
Another validated for two years. Talked to companies. They all said theyd pay. Zero paying customers.
20,000 users. 3,586 websites created. Shut down anyway.
These founders didnt lack effort. They didnt build bad products. They validated the wrong thing.
Stated Preference vs Revealed Preference
Theres a concept in behavioral economics that explains everything.
Stated preference is what people say theyll do. Revealed preference is what they actually do.
When you ask "would you pay for this?" youre asking someone to simulate a future version of themselves making a purchasing decision. That simulation is wrong almost every time.
One founder ran 300 beta tests. Video calls. Excited users. Tons of feedback. Launch day came. Nobody converted.
His reflection was brutal. Interest does not equal willingness to pay.
The Vanity Metrics Factory
One founder described their free trial as a "vanity metrics factory." Free trials attract tire kickers, students doing research, and competitors poking around. The dashboard shows growth. The bank account shows nothing.
This founder killed their free trial. Everyone told them it was suicide. Signups dropped 70%.
Revenue went up 40%.
The free trial was filtering IN the wrong people. Removing it filtered them OUT. Fewer users. More customers.
The Question That Changes Everything
After reading all these shutdown posts I noticed one question that separated winners from losers.
"What are you doing about this problem right now?"
Listen to the answer.
"Nothing, its fine." Not a real problem.
"We complain about it sometimes." Awareness without action.
"We have a spreadsheet that kind of works." Workaround. Good sign.
"We hired a contractor to handle it manually." Spending money. Great sign.
"We use [competitor] but it sucks." Active buyer. Best sign.
The goal isnt finding people who acknowledge the problem. Its finding people already spending time or money to solve it imperfectly. Those people will pay you. Everyone else is being polite.
The $1 Filter
The only real validation is a transaction. Not "I would pay." Not "sounds interesting." Money.
One founder added a $1 paywall to their free trial. Conversion rate went from 3% to 41%.
The $1 wasnt about revenue. It was about filtering. Anyone willing to pay $1 is categorically different from someone who isnt.
This feels wrong to most developers. We want to build first, charge later. But products dont speak. Customers do. And they speak loudest with their wallets.
The Pain Hierarchy
Not all problems are equal. Knowing which ones people will actually pay to solve before you build is everything.
Are they aware of the problem? Are they actively searching for solutions? Do they have existing workarounds? Are they already spending money on something? Is there built in urgency? Who controls the budget?
Most founders validate the first two levels and call it done. The money is in levels three through six.
Vitamins vs Painkillers
Most failed SaaS products are vitamins marketed as painkillers.
The test is simple. If your product disappeared tomorrow, would customers notice within 24 hours? Would they actively seek a replacement? Would they pay more to get it back?
If the answer is no, you built a vitamin.
What Actually Works
The pattern of successful founders was clear.
They charged early, often before the product was ready. They filtered aggressively, losing tire kickers on purpose. They found people with workarounds, not just people with problems. They talked to budget owners, not just pain experiencers. They built distribution before product.
They treated signups as vanity. Only revenue counted.
The Uncomfortable Truth
If youre reading this and feeling uncomfortable, good.
The founders who posted these shutdown stories all had skills to build great products. They all worked hard. They all "validated."
They all failed because they validated the wrong thing.
I wrote a full playbook on this. Analyzed 50+ real shutdowns, extracted the patterns, built frameworks you can actually use.
Chapter one is free. Covers the validation lie with more data and case studies.
Chapters two through four cover the exact playbooks for filtering buyers, identifying real pain, and building distribution before product.
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