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Mingke Tu
Mingke Tu

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Building DisconfirmAI: An AI investment research workspace that looks for counter-evidence first

When you use a general-purpose LLM to analyze a stock or read an earnings report, it tends to agree with whatever premise you put in the prompt. If you ask why a company looks undervalued, it will assemble a convincing bull case. In financial research, that habit is risky.

I built DisconfirmAI around a simple rule from Karl Popper and value investing: before building conviction in a thesis, look for the specific evidence that would prove it wrong.

Here is how the workspace is structured:

1. Primary-Source Daily Reading

The Daily Reading feed curates AI industry and market developments from primary sources, keeping original links and publication dates. Editorial annotations use three fixed labels:

  • [Background] for factual context
  • [Doubt] when a claim relies only on vendor self-reporting without independent benchmarks
  • [Editor's Note] for editorial commentary

2. SEC Filing & 13F Research Separated by Evidence Level

In the Research workflow, questions about earnings releases, multi-year financials, and SEC 13F institutional holdings (calculated strictly by share-count changes rather than market-value fluctuations) are split into three sections: Verified, Inferred, and Doubtful. It does not output buy/sell recommendations or price targets.

3. Investment Framework & Quiet Scheduled Radar

In Investment Framework, you write down your circle of competence, entry rules, and the exact conditions that would force you to revise or exit a position. Radar scans those conditions on a schedule. When nothing material changes, it stays quiet and logs scanned-and-empty in the audit trail.

4. Open AI Industry Databases & 23 Free Valuation Tools

Everything below is open in the browser without registration:

  • AI 100 Ranking and AI Industry Map covering 328 public and private AI companies with valuation sources.
  • AI Capital Database tracking 291 AI-native companies with $100M+ in funding and 1,205 investment firms.
  • 23 Native Investing Tools including Value Trap Review, Business Quality Check, Damodaran DCF, Buffett Intrinsic Value, Abnormal Selling Pressure Check, and a 38-metric financial analysis handbook.

If you analyze tech or AI companies or build financial research workflows, I would love your feedback on the tools and the falsification approach: https://disconfirmai.com/en

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