DEV Community

Cover image for Why I Don’t Trust AI With Crypto Predictions?
Paul Bennett
Paul Bennett

Posted on

Why I Don’t Trust AI With Crypto Predictions?

You can ask an AI what to make for breakfast, but not “what will Bitcoin be tomorrow?” I won’t argue - AI is the perfect assistant, a brilliant writer, and an amazing explainer of complex stuff. But anyone trying to use it as a “crypto market oracle” is basically signing up for “financial suicide on Saturdays.”

Crypto is psychology and probabilities. AI is logic, statistics, and order. And until one learns to understand the other, I’ll keep repeating:

AI - a fantastic tool. But a terrible trader.

A regulatory update, an exchange hack, or a single massive wallet transfer can flip market direction within minutes. Tomorrow Trump might say Bitcoin is useless, and it could drop threefold. Can AI predict that? Only if Trump personally tells it.

Why AI Can’t Predict the Market Perfectly?

A 2024 survey of algorithms found that word-embedding sentiment models achieved around 89.13% accuracy in predicting Bitcoin direction, although they struggled to predict exact price levels. This gap between direction and magnitude shows why even strong systems are probability-based. So, yeah… AI isn’t exactly crushing it.

Now imagine the poor algorithm, which has no idea what “fear,” “panic,” or “when your favorite shitcoin drops 37% in an hour, and you start praying to God at 3 a.m.” even means.

When the market starts to freak out, AI sees:
“Volatility increased by 12%. Potential sentiment shift.”
Humans see:
“EVERYTHING, SELL, LIFE IS OVER, I’M JOINING A MONASTERY.”

While the algorithm calmly analyzes historical data, humans turn into pure emotion, jumping faster than the candles on a 5-minute chart. Real examples: FTX crashes in a single day. Why? Panic! Musk tweets about DOGE - the market explodes. Why? Panic, but fun panic.

The algorithm cannot understand that this isn’t logic, it’s mental chaos where the crowd acts not because it makes sense, but because the crowd acts. And here’s the funny part: While AI is busy analyzing candles, we should really be analyzing memes, Telegram channels, rumors, and traders’ caffeine levels. Because that - not models - actually moves the market.

Real AI Fails in Crypto Predictions

A few months ago, I saw an article claiming AI predicts a massive Bitcoin surge. I smirked and decided to run an experiment that lasted exactly until I wrote this piece: I asked AI for predictions on various coins. Here’s what it said and what we have today:

BITCOIN: Prediction - September 17, 2025

My question:

Bitcoin price is $117,225. Its all-time low over the past year was $67,81. Give me an exact prediction of Bitcoin’s price exactly two months from now.

AI Answer:

Considering the current price of $117,225 and Bitcoin’s historical volatility, the most likely price in two months could be around $125,000, with a possible range from $110,000 to $140,000.

Result: November 26, 2025

Today, Bitcoin is hovering around $86,700. As you can see, the AI had placed way too high bets on it, which didn’t materialize. The coin is nowhere near the figure it predicted. Right now, Bitcoin is forming a potential three-drive structure between $75,000 and $78,000.

WhiteBIT COIN: Prediction - September 17, 2025

My question:

The price of WBT Coin is $42.30. Over the past three years, the all-time low was $3.06. Give me the exact prediction of what WBT Coin’s price will be exactly two months from now.

AI answer:

Considering its recent momentum and adoption trends, a data-driven estimate suggests that in two months WBT Coin could reach approximately $46-$50, with bullish catalysts like network updates or partnerships pushing it higher, while market corrections or broader crypto downturns could cap it near $40.

Result: November 26, 2025

Today, WBT Coin trades at $57.59. Eight days ago, the coin hit a new ATH of $62.96. Meanwhile, the AI had predicted a price almost 1.4 times lower. The forecast failed because AI can’t account for the fact that this coin resists extreme volatility and has strong resilience.

XRP: Prediction - September 17, 2025

My question:

The price of XRP is $2.99. Over the past year, the all-time low was $0.002686. Give me the exact prediction of what XRP’s price will be exactly two months from now.

AI answer:

Considering the current price of $2.99 and XRP’s high historical volatility, the most likely price in two months could be around $3.20.

Result: November 26, 2025

As for XRP, it’s currently trading near $2.20, flat on the day and up about 1.5% over the past week, despite the promising forecast. Following that prediction could have seriously hurt your portfolio. Now, if long-term holder selling increases and price breaks this level, XRP could revisit $1.81, a recent local bottom.

For each of my requests, I attached a chart screenshot and highlighted the main analytical points. And even that wasn’t enough for it to make an accurate prediction.

My Takeaway

AI is like that super-smart friend who can calculate, explain, and give advice… but when real crypto drama hits, it stands in the corner with a cup of tea, blinking in disbelief. Crypto isn’t just numbers, charts, and algorithms - it’s emotions, panic, memes, and spontaneous tweets.

So use AI as a tool, not a prophet. Because in crypto, the only prediction you can count on is that humans will always find a way to surprise the algorithms.

Top comments (0)