The EURO Women's 2025 has been underway for 4 days now. Yesterday, while watching the matches, I noticed something interesting:
All 5PM games from 2nd to 4th July ended 1-0, while 8PM games had at least 2 goals.
That pattern made me wonder — is the time slot affecting the score?
I believed weather conditions might be playing a role, so I decided to dig deeper using data.
1. Data & Tools
- Match data: www.flashscore.com
- Weather data: http://timeanddate.com
- Tools: Python(Pandas, Seaborn, Matplotlib)
2. Match Performance by Kickoff Time
Graph: Match Tempo by Kickoff Time
| Metric | 5PM Avg | 8PM Avg | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Goals | 1.0 | 3.3 | Less goals at 5PM |
| Total Shots | 28.33 | 29.67 | Same offensive effort |
| On Target | 8.3 | 9.3 | Same offensive effort |
| xG | 2.18 | 3.87 | More quality chances at 8PM |
| Big Chances | 1.0 | 5.67 | More real threats at 8PM |
Description:
Despite similar shot volumes, the 5PM matches suffered from poor shooting precision and fewer quality chances. This implies that it wasn't about intent — it was about execution, possibly influenced by weather.
3. Weather Conditions by Kickoff Time
Graph: Average Weather by Kickoff Time
| Metric | 5PM | 8PM | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temperature | 31.0°C | 26.7°C | More fatigue at 5PM |
| Humidity | 41.3% | 59.3% | More sweat evaporation at 5PM |
| Wind Speed | 9.7 mph | 4.6 mph | Stronger wind may affect ball trajectory |
Description:
The 5PM kickoff comes with hotter and windier conditions, which could lead to faster exhaustion, disrupted passing, and poorer shot execution. While humidity was higher at 8PM, overall evening matches provided a more favorable playing environment.
4. Conclusion
It’s not that teams tried less in the early games.
But the combination of heat, wind, and possible fatigue — especially the high temperature and low humidity — appears to have lowered the quality of execution.
In short: at 5PM, the body says go, but the weather says no.
Takeaway: Match tempo and quality can vary based on kickoff time — not just tactics or team quality.
This is, of course, my personal analysis based on the available match and weather data.
Collaboration
I’m always open to collaborating on creating content with football data!
If this kind of analysis interests you, feel free to give me feedback. I’d love to improve my skills.
You can check out the full code and data on my GitHub repository: https://github.com/k-eunji/weather_relation
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