Polymarket Volume Surges to $10: US Default Odds Priced at 1.5% for 2027

2026-11-06, FP360 — Polymarket's 'US defaults on debt by 2027' contract saw $10 in 24-hour volume, holding implied probability at 1.5% as traders dismiss tail risk despite $36 trillion debt and elevated yields. The thin liquidity underscores low conviction in a crisis scenario, but even a 1.5% probability implies a $400 billion expected loss if realized. The market's verdict: default is a tail risk, not a base case, keeping Treasury yields anchored.

The Signal: Market-implied default probability of 1.5% remains contained, supporting risk assets and steepening curve bets.

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Originally published on FINPULSE 360