Beginners chase win rate. Pros chase expectancy.
A channel screaming "90% win rate" tells you nothing — it hides the size of the 10% that lose. If 9 winners make +1% each and 1 loser drops -15%, you're net negative at a 90% win rate. A system that wins only 53% but cuts losers fast and lets winners run can print money for years.
The number that matters is Profit Factor = gross profit / gross loss. Above 1.0 = profitable. My long-only forward-test runs at PF 1.39 on walk-forward validation (6 of 6 windows positive) — ~$1.39 earned per $1 lost, at a 53% out-of-sample win rate. In the current bull window the rate sits near ~80%, but expect it to fall toward 53% as the regime turns. Max drawdown so far: 22%.
When a signal seller flexes "90% wins," ask two questions: what's the profit factor, and where's the drawdown? If they can't show both, the 90% is theater.
Every trade — green and red — is published on a public page: https://nexus-bot.pro/signals/
Education, not financial advice.
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