1. Morbid Curiosity Drove Me
This is how a total investing noob built a historical crisis portfolio simulator.
2 years ago: Didn't know factsheets existed.
Picked up Ray Dalio's Changing World Order.
One question broke me:
'What if history repeats on my portfolio?'
Then I created CrashFolio.xyz.
2. Autopilot Mode. Pure Automated Dopamine
Have no budget for fancy APIs.
Scheduled jobs scraping known platforms, enriching my DB automatically.
Felt like a god when I saw the app improving by itself while I was at gym.
But once you get down to it, you realise sources are so messy and consistency can be easily lost.
3. Couldn't Accept Bullshit Data
Built strict guardrails: every fund must map cleanly or get rejected.
No bullshit data.
This is all about Reliability.
4. Risk and Drawdown Modeling: Moving Beyond Simple Percentage Drops
Regarding drawdown simulations: you can't just slap 'stocks -50%' on a real portfolio.
It has regions, sectors, duration, credit risk, commodities, concentration...
Solution: Map holdings, check concentration and compute risk factors from it.
5. Simulation: Implementing Monte Carlo for Black Swans
I read Nassim Taleb's Black Swan and his enthusiasm for Monte Carlo simulator really inspired me.
So I decided to implement it for my historical crisis drawdown simulator: fat tails, stressed correlations, VaR, Expected Shortfall, recovery paths...
6. Learn Before Your Portfolio Crashes
Started from a personal curiosity.
But it can help any retail investor learn risk before the crash.
And morbid curiosity is the gateway drug.
Still early, still messy, but mission clear.
Understand history so your money survives the next cycle.
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You can see how does crashfolio.xyz work in the video below.
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