It's turtles all the way down

It's turtles all the way down

Large companies' risk aversion creates a 77% chance they'll lose to startups in any single innovation race, despite near-certain startup success over multiple attempts.

• When a fast but unreliable competitor (hare) faces a slow but steady one (tortoise), the hare loses 77% of individual races but wins nearly all series of 100 races.
• Startups act as hares against large company tortoises: any single startup likely fails, but repeated attempts guarantee some will disrupt incumbents and capture massive value.
• Corporate risk aversion stems from judging projects individually as successes or failures, discouraging bets on volatile ideas with high potential but low expected value.

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