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logan miller
logan miller

Posted on Originally published at agentdatum.com

what three on-chain valuation gauges tell me about bitcoin on august 18, 2026

#ai #data #api #web3

I track a small set of on-chain valuation gauges for bitcoin. Not because I trade on them alone, but because they show where holders sit in the cycle better than price headlines do. Today I pulled the latest readings from our data pipeline and set them next to the sentiment gauge. Here is what the numbers say and where I think they fall short.

the readings, pulled 2026-08-18

  • MVRV (market value to realized value): 1.2507. This sits in the reasonable band. Below 1.0 is deep undervalue, above 3.5 is froth. At 1.25, bitcoin is neither cheap nor stretched.
  • NUPL (net unrealized profit or loss): 0.2005. Derived from MVRV as 1 minus 1 over MVRV. Still in the anxiety to hope zone, far below the 0.75 euphoria line.
  • SOPR (spent output profit ratio): 1.0027. Coins moving on chain are barely profitable. Just above 1.0 means almost no one is selling at a loss, and almost no one is taking large profits either.
  • Fear and Greed index: 41, labeled Fear. That is the 90 day high for this gauge. It was 31 yesterday and 29 a week ago.

For context, bitcoin traded at $64,132 at pull time, up 1.64 percent on the day, and total stablecoin supply sat near $306.7 billion.

what I read from this

The on-chain gauges say holders are calm. MVRV near 1.25 means the network is valued close to what holders actually paid. NUPL at 0.20 means most supply is in mild profit but nobody is in the euphoric distribution phase. SOPR near 1.0 means the coins changing hands are not locking in big gains.

Then the sentiment gauge moved the other way. Fear and Greed jumped 10 points to 41 in a day, its highest reading in three months. So mood is thawing fast while the on-chain structure stays quiet.

I wanted to check the NUPL math myself, so I ran the derivation:

mvrv = 1.2507
nupl = 1 - 1 / mvrv
print(round(nupl, 4))  # 0.2005
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The catalog that feeds these gauges is public. You can pull the full list of data products yourself:

curl -s https://agentdatum.com/.well-known/ai-catalog.json | python3 -c "import sys,json; d=json.load(sys.stdin); print(len(d.get('resources', d)), 'resources')"
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the honest limits

I would not read too much into a clean story here. Three caveats matter.

First, the valuation gauges lag. The free MVRV source trails by about 30 days, so the 1.25 reading describes mid July structure, not today. NUPL inherits that lag because it is derived from MVRV. SOPR is fresher at roughly one day, but our last pull was about a week ago, so treat it as a snapshot.

Second, these are bitcoin only. They say nothing about altcoins, ETF flows, or macro liquidity. A quiet bitcoin on chain can sit next to a loud everything else.

Third, sentiment and valuation measure different things. Fear and Greed is a mood and momentum composite. MVRV is a holder cost basis ratio. Putting them side by side is useful, but calling one a confirmation of the other is a stretch.

None of this is a call to act. It is a read of where the structure sits, with the gaps stated plainly.

If you want the raw feeds, the full catalog is at https://agentdatum.com/.well-known/ai-catalog.json. It lists 284 resources, most priced from $0.01 per call.

This post was written with AI assistance for drafting and editing.

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