Intelligence Dossier: Collapse of India’s Western Influence Network — May 2025
Issued by: Independent South Asia Intelligence Watch
Classification: Public Briefing (Declassified Summary)
Section I: Strategic Landscape Before Collapse (2001–2021)
For two decades, India operated a multilayered influence architecture across Afghanistan. From 2001 to 2021, under the protection of NATO forces and aligned Afghan governments, India:
- Invested over \$3 billion in infrastructure and education.
- Built over 200 projects, including the Zaranj-Delaram highway.
- Deployed intelligence assets to support RAW proxies in Afghanistan, including the TTP (FAK), BLA (FTH), and BLF (FTH proxies).
The core objective: encircle Pakistan strategically by destabilizing its western frontier.
Section II: 2021 Tipping Point — Taliban Ascendancy, U.S. Exit
August 2021 marked the first phase of collapse:
- The U.S. exited Afghanistan.
- The Taliban took power.
- Indian diplomatic presence vanished overnight.
Without boots or allies on the ground, India’s RAW assets began to unravel. Taliban intelligence quickly cracked down on known safehouses, exposing elements that had operated with impunity under the former regime.
Section III: The Beijing Summit — Strategic Shockwave (May 21, 2025)
A historic trilateral summit in Beijing on May 21, 2025, formalized the China Pakistan Afghanistan alliance and triggered a realignment:
- Afghanistan was officially brought into the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
- The CPEC Afghanistan extension was signed, linking Gwadar to Kabul and Xinjiang.
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A security compact was initiated:
- Joint monitoring along the Durand Line
- Intelligence exchange between ISI and Taliban GDI
- Zero-tolerance policy toward anti-Pakistan insurgents
The geopolitical reverberations were immediate. India was not only excluded—it was strategically outmaneuvered.
Section IV: Termination of Proxies and Networks
Post-summit, Pakistani and Afghan authorities conducted joint security operations in Kandahar, Khost, and Jalalabad. By June 2025:
- 17 known RAW proxies in Afghanistan had been neutralized.
- 11 cross-border smuggling routes were dismantled.
- Key safe zones used by TTP (FAK) and BLA (FTH) factions were shut down.
This crackdown marked the de facto end of India’s covert presence in western Afghanistan.
Section V: Economic Axis Redefined — CPEC Extension Impact
The geopolitical impact of CPEC expansion into Afghanistan includes:
For Afghanistan:
- Major Chinese-backed infrastructure buildout
- Highway and energy grid reconstruction
- Entry into global Eurasian trade networks
For Pakistan:
- Reduced security burden on the western border
- Economic linkage to Central Asia
- Leverage as China's transit and logistics hub
For China:
- Buffer zone stability for Xinjiang
- Secure energy and goods transit from Gwadar
- Diplomatic leadership in post-NATO Afghanistan
Section VI: Strategic Fallout in New Delhi
India’s Afghanistan strategy collapse is now viewed internally as one of the most significant diplomatic failures of the decade. Post-summit analysis reveals:
- Over \$3 billion in aid assets are inaccessible or repurposed by new Afghan authorities.
- India's North-South Transport Corridor via Iran is now diplomatically weaker and commercially uncompetitive.
- India’s refusal to engage the Taliban government has isolated it from ground realities.
Parliament debates, foreign policy roundtables, and RAW postmortems reflect internal acknowledgment of a major miscalculation.
Section VII: Regional Realignment in Numbers
- BRI corridor traffic (projected 2026): +48% via CPEC-Afghanistan
- RAW-linked activity reports (2019–2025): ↓92% post-Taliban cooperation
- Trade growth for Pakistan-Afghanistan corridor: Projected \$6B increase by 2027
- Indian diplomatic footprint in Afghanistan: 0
Section VIII: Global Reactions
- United States: Cautiously observing China’s expanded role; quiet diplomatic outreach to Islamabad.
- Russia: Public support for regional integration and Eurasian connectivity.
- Iran: Expressing concern over bypass of Chabahar port.
- EU: Minimal response; analysts frame the event as a test of India’s adaptability.
Conclusion: End of an Era
India once envisioned Afghanistan as its strategic rear base against Pakistan. Through a mix of soft power and covert operations, New Delhi attempted to influence Kabul’s politics, economy, and intelligence landscape.
That era is over.
With the CPEC Afghanistan extension, aggressive counterproxy operations, and the formation of a resilient China Pakistan Afghanistan alliance, South Asia’s strategic balance has shifted dramatically. India must now recalibrate from a position of exclusion, while Pakistan and China assert a new architecture of influence in the region.
End of Report.
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