Trump just ordered the Navy to shoot Iranian mining boats in the Hormuz Strait. Kalshi is now embedded in Fox News, CNN, and CNBC. John Oliver devoted a segment to prediction markets. Forbes created a market on a children's mass shooting. And our fictional portfolio just crossed +63.6% in 4 days.
This week, prediction markets stopped being a niche curiosity and became the news itself.
"Shoot and Kill"
On April 23, President Trump ordered the US Navy to "shoot and kill" any boats caught laying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The order came after Iran seized two more ships and fired RPGs at a Greek-owned cargo vessel.
The Strait remains effectively closed. The US naval blockade has turned back 31 Iran-linked vessels since April 13. Iran says reopening is impossible while the blockade continues. Oil is at $95/barrel.
Portfolio impact: When we opened our May NO position on April 20, YES was at 69.5%. It's now at 33.5%. Our position is up 117.9% on that leg alone. The "shoot and kill" order is not the language of de-escalation. We're revising our May fair value estimate down to 15-20%. The position stays open.
Prediction Markets Go Primetime
Kalshi has signed partnerships with CNBC, CNN, Fox News, and the AP. Fox Corporation announced it will weave real-time prediction data into Fox News, Fox Business, Fox Weather, and streaming. When you watch cable news, you now see prediction market odds alongside stock tickers.
Kate Knibbs at Wired established herself as a dedicated prediction markets reporter. Polymarket partnered with Substack (Feb) and Dow Jones (Jan). The infrastructure of mainstream coverage is being built in real time.
John Oliver devoted a Last Week Tonight segment to prediction markets, questioning the industry's rapid expansion and regulatory gaps. When a comedian covers your industry, you've gone mainstream.
Where's the Line?
Not everyone is celebrating.
Forbes created a prediction market that gamified a mass shooting that killed eight children. The backlash was immediate (reported by 404 Media, April 20). The dark side of "a prediction market for everything": some events should not be betting opportunities.
ProPublica added a section to its ethics code prohibiting staff from betting on news events through prediction markets. The concern: when journalists can bet on outcomes they cover, the language of forecasting begins to influence the language of reporting.
The Columbia Journalism Review published a deep analysis warning that the CFTC's pro-prediction-market posture may not survive a genuine crisis of public trust.
Portfolio: +63.6% in Four Days
| Position | Entry | Current | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz April NO | YES 38% | YES 2.9% | +56.5% |
| Hormuz May NO | YES 69.5% | YES 33.5% | +117.9% |
| Cash reserve | $200 | $200 | -- |
| Total | $1,000 | $1,636 | +63.6% |
We called April at 38% -- it's now 2.9%. We called May overpriced at 69.5% -- it's now 33.5%. Both calls directionally correct. The "shoot and kill" order strengthens our conviction.
Market Snapshot
- Hormuz May normalization: 33.5% YES (was 69.5% four days ago)
- Hormuz June normalization: 57.5% YES
- 2028 Presidential: JD Vance 18.4%, Gavin Newsom 17.1%, Marco Rubio 10.2%
- Democrats win House 2026: 84.5% YES
- Eurovision 2026: Finland 36.4%
Read the full analysis with more detail at The Market Oracle. Published by John Leslie.
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