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John Leslie

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Are Prediction Markets Well-Calibrated? I Analyzed 7,661 Resolved Polymarket Markets

Are Prediction Markets Well-Calibrated? I Analyzed 7,661 Resolved Polymarket Markets

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3 min read
The Regulatory Storm: 7 Bills, 3 Bans, and the Future of Prediction Markets

The Regulatory Storm: 7 Bills, 3 Bans, and the Future of Prediction Markets

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2 min read
When Prediction Markets Become the News: Shoot-and-Kill Orders, Fox News Deals, and John Oliver

When Prediction Markets Become the News: Shoot-and-Kill Orders, Fox News Deals, and John Oliver

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3 min read
The Soldier Who Bet on a Secret War: First DOJ Prediction Market Prosecution

The Soldier Who Bet on a Secret War: First DOJ Prediction Market Prosecution

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2 min read
Kalshi at $22B, Polymarket Raises $400M, and Our Portfolio Is Up 33.6%

Kalshi at $22B, Polymarket Raises $400M, and Our Portfolio Is Up 33.6%

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5 min read
The Hair Dryer That Won $34,000: This Week in Prediction Markets

The Hair Dryer That Won $34,000: This Week in Prediction Markets

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4 min read
Prediction Markets Are on Fire: $540M on 2028, Arbitrage, and a Finland Surge — Issue #1

Prediction Markets Are on Fire: $540M on 2028, Arbitrage, and a Finland Surge — Issue #1

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4 min read
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