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Mike Wei
Mike Wei

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The "Moore's Law for AI" everyone promised you? It didn't happen.

Everyone building AI agents is about to learn the same expensive lesson: capability and economics are two different problems.

I've spent 15+ years building large-scale ML systems, and here's the uncomfortable math behind agentic AI in 2026:

→ Token prices haven't fallen in a straight line. The cheapest models have flattened out, and flagship pricing turned upward again this year (GPT-5.4 launched at 2x GPT-5's input price).

→ Reasoning tokens are billed as output tokens — deeper thinking raises cost even when the visible answer stays short.

→ One agentic request expands into planning, retrieval, verification, and tool calls. More useful work, way more tokens.

Betting your unit economics on "models will get cheaper" is not a strategy. Power constraints alone make that assumption shaky — AI demand is now colliding with the electricity grid, not just GPU supply.

What actually works is treating token efficiency as an architecture problem:

System design is the strongest lever. A system tightly coupled to the problem spends less because it already knows the workflow, the boundaries, and the next step. Generic agents pay a "rediscovery tax" on every single run.

Task optimization comes second. Routing, classification, extraction — these don't need frontier reasoning. The first big savings usually come from stopping the model from doing work it never needed to do.

Custom models come last, and only at scale. Trade a recurring inference bill for a predictable training cost — but only when the task is stable and you have real evaluation discipline.

This is why we treat cost as a core design constraint at Aissist, not a cleanup task for later. AI that can't scale economically fails the business case no matter how smart it is.

Full analysis: https://aissist.io/technology/token-efficiency

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