Since October 2022, the IT job market has taken a drop like we've never seen before. Perhaps those with 20+ years of experience had seen something similar during the 2008 world economy crisis, but since then, this is the biggest hit we have experienced. Developers with little to no experience find it nearly impossible to get on companies' radar. There is an article on the web which talks about a small startup company listing a job position and receiving 3000 applications, a number that was considered normal for FAANG companies.
Even those with multiple years, and even 10+ years, of experience are not receiving job offers anymore. The section of the market that appears to be hit the hardest is traditional software developers and software engineers.
What actually happened, and why does it appear to affect almost all companies?
I will try to explain it in the simplest terms. Tech companies mostly borrow money from banks to use for their expansion, expenses, etc. Interest rates from banks are determined by market projections. In 2021, those reports showed that IT would rise extra fast, and people were moving to online services due to the COVID lockdown. Companies' money borrowing policies were not as realistic as they should have been, and they ended up overemploying. Everybody who borrows money is affected - and that is everybody. What does that mean? Companies that previously hired for all roles like mad are now only hiring for critical roles for business operations.
The 4th Industrial Revolution
As the invention of the internet removed many jobs, it also created many more on the other side. AI will affect the software development space but not in the way you might think. At least at the current level, it can only be a tool, not a replacement.
So, is coding going to die off?
Actually, not at all. All the new companies that will emerge in the years to come are going to need developers. Why? Well, because software development is a very complex task that generates a lot of revenue for a company. Think of it this way - You are doing something for $3000 per month while your work makes the company $30,000. Do you think the business world suddenly doesn't want a money-making mule like yourself? Of course not. We are under a recession, and an end is going to come, as with every recession.
Projections
It is hard to make projections during a recession - what it will look like after it, how long it will last, and stuff like that. With a lot of moving parts, even people with access to information we don't have would not dare to make claims such as "Everything will come back to normal in X months." Even defining what normal means after a recession is a task on its own. But there are certain things we can say. The skillset that you use every day as a software engineer/developer is never going to die off. Your day-to-day work will most probably differ a little bit in the next couple of years. But what will stay the same is that you will still be solving problems and probably making similar money from solving those problems. You will communicate with your fellow colleagues as you are doing now, and how well you do it will increase or decrease your value on the market.
Conclusion
Instead of looking to change careers out of fear that your career path will become irrelevant, I would advise you to dive deeper. When choosing to pursue or continue a career path, don't look at your job market one year from now. Look 10-20 years ahead. The past year and 2023 are just a bump in a 20-year timeline, in which I believe and hope there will be many more positive than negative trends.
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