Investment analysis by Ruslan Averin — originally published at averin.com.
Porsche AG closed near €49.03 on June 17, the single best performer in the European auto group this year at roughly +7%, trading just under its 52-week high of €50.66. That strength is the puzzle: the company has warned that 2026 earnings will fall by several hundred million euros, is slowing its EV rollout, and trades at a distorted ~143x earnings after a near-wipeout of FY2025 profit.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Close (Jun 17 2026) | €49.03 |
| 52-week range | €35.62 – €50.66 |
| Trailing P/E | ~143x (depressed earnings) |
| Dividend / target | ~2.0% / €42–43 (Hold) |
The bull case
The Porsche brand is one of the strongest margin stories in autos, and sentiment is quietly turning — Goldman moved to Buy with a €59 target in June. FY2025 profit collapsed 93% to €413 million after a €3.9 billion EV writedown, so today's nosebleed multiple is on trough earnings; normalize them and the stock looks far cheaper. The pivot back toward gas and hybrid models matches where demand actually is.
The bear case
You're paying near the 52-week high for a company that just told you earnings are going down, with Q1 deliveries already off 15% to 60,991 units on collapsing China demand and U.S. tariffs. The average analyst target (~€42–43) sits below the current price — the consensus literally sees downside. A 143x multiple, even on depressed earnings, offers no cushion if the reset disappoints.
My verdict
This is an avoid at €49. The brand is elite, but I won't pay a 52-week-high price into an earnings warning when the consensus target is lower than the quote. As Ruslan Averin, I'd want this back toward the €40–€42 zone — where Goldman's bull case and the average target converge — before the risk/reward makes sense. Great car company, wrong entry.
Bottom line: Porsche AG is the sector's lone gainer, but buying a 143x stock near its high into an earnings cut is backwards — I'd pass until it resets toward €42.
More market analysis by Ruslan Averin at averin.com.
Top comments (0)