Originally published on averin.com
Trade type: LONG
Status: CLOSED May 28, 2026
| Price | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| Entry | $36.00 | May 23, 2026 (Fri) |
| Exit | $38.19 | May 28, 2026 (Wed) |
| P&L | +$2.19 / +6.08% | 3 trading days |
The Setup
Super Micro Computer collapsed from above $100 in 2024 to the low $30s after its accounting and SEC filing controversy. By May 2026, the compliance situation was resolved but the stock hadn't recovered. That gap — business intact, stock still depressed — is where I found the entry.
The core argument: SMCI continued shipping AI servers throughout the reporting chaos. Customers kept ordering. That is a meaningful signal of business durability that the stock price wasn't reflecting.
Entry: $36.00 on May 23, 2026. Technical base forming at $34–37. Risk/reward attractive below $37 with a stop at $34.50.
Trade Path
| Date | SMCI | Move |
|---|---|---|
| May 23 — Entry | $36.00 | — |
| May 27 — Close | $37.10 | +$1.10 / +3.1% |
| May 28 — Exit | $38.19 | +$1.09 / +2.94% on the day |
May 28 was the key session: SMCI gained +2.94% while the broader market was negative and SOXX fell 1.07%. That divergence — stock-specific buying against a weak tape — confirmed the recovery thesis was printing. When a contrarian position outperforms on a down day, you've found the right exit window.
Why I Closed Today
The exit at $38.19 captures the strongest divergence signal. SMCI at $38+ is approaching the upper end of the base I identified at entry. Holding further carries increasing event risk — the name can move 5–8% in either direction on any catalyst. Taking +6.1% in three days on a speculative position is the disciplined exit.
Closed at $38.19. Net gain: +$2.19 per share, +6.08%. Best return in the May 25–28 book.
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