"How long will it take?"
Whatever you answer,
it's a guess.
A dressed-up one, maybe,
based on experience —
but a guess about a future
you can't fully see.
The mistake isn't guessing.
It's saying the number
like it's a promise
and letting everyone hear certainty.
So say the quiet part:
"Best guess, three days —
here's what could blow it up."
Give the range, not the point.
Name the unknowns.
Update it as you learn.
That's not weakness or hedging.
It's honesty about how work works.
The senior move
isn't a more confident number.
It's a clearer picture
of how much you don't yet know.
– Serguey Asael Shinder
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