Only 3 of 11 sectors finished the week in positive territory, which tells the story more clearly than any index level. Health Care, Energy, and Materials gained ground while Technology, Utilities, and Industrials each fell more than 3%. The Nasdaq 100 bore the brunt of the selling, down 2.41%, while the Dow held up comparatively well at -0.78%.
Market posture: Constructive. Broad uptrend. Normal signal cadence to our subscribers.
3 of 11 sectors higher · VIX 16.01 (+1.76)
📊 The data behind the tape
🏠 08-18-2026 · Housing starts: The New Residential Construction data gave the market a read on how building activity is holding up under elevated rate conditions, a figure watched closely given ongoing sensitivity to mortgage costs. · details ›
🏭 08-18-2026 · Industrial production: The G.17 release offered a snapshot of factory and utility output, relevant to the week's sector moves given the sharp underperformance in Industrials. · details ›
🏛️ 08-19-2026 · Fed minutes: The FOMC meeting minutes provided more detail on the thinking behind the Fed's most recent decision, and traders parsed them for any shift in how policymakers are weighing growth against inflation. · details ›
📈 Earnings that mattered
🔴 BABA miss 20%: Heavy AI infrastructure investment compressed margins sharply. Revenue came in ahead of expectations, but the profit shortfall by more than 20% was the number that moved the stock, which fell over 7% on the day. · full report ›
🟢 WMT beat 8%: Walmart beat on the bottom line with broad-based strength across its retail and advertising businesses, though the stock still slid roughly 9% on the week as analysts trimmed targets in the aftermath. · full report ›
🟢 TGT beat 6%: Target posted a stronger-than-expected quarter and raised both its sales and earnings guidance, signaling that its turnaround has moved into a steadier phase even as analysts flag that the sharpest gains in the stock may be behind it. · full report ›
🟢 DE beat 6%: Deere beat estimates and raised its full-year net income outlook to a range of $4.75 to $5 billion, with management characterizing 2026 as the bottom of the agricultural equipment cycle, which the market treated as mildly reassuring. · full report ›
🟢 LOW beat 3%: Lowe's beat the earnings estimate but cut its full-year guidance to a range below what analysts had penciled in. The narrowed outlook weighed on the stock even as some analysts pointed to the possibility of comparable-sales improvement in the second half. · full report ›
🎯 Earnings on our radar
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INTU · Tue 08-25-2026 · after the close · our research
- ✅ Confirms: AI-assisted tax and QuickBooks attach-rate gains, operating margin holding above 40%, and forward revenue growth guidance above 10% would support the durability case.
- ⚠️ Breaks: Guidance implying revenue growth below 10% or any operating margin compression toward 40% would undermine the franchise quality argument.
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CRM · Wed 08-26-2026 · after the close · our research
- ✅ Confirms: Improving Agentforce monetization, FCF margin staying well above 30%, and operating margin expansion would validate the quality franchise view.
- ⚠️ Breaks: FCF margin slipping toward 30%, operating margin falling below 18%, or further weakening of AI revenue attach rates would erode the cash-conversion thesis.
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NVDA · Wed 08-26-2026 · after the close · our research
- ✅ Confirms: Data-center revenue growth well above 20% and operating margin sustained above 55% would confirm the AI capex cycle remains firmly in NVDA's favor.
- ⚠️ Breaks: Data-center revenue growth decelerating below 20% or any forward guidance signaling demand softness from hyperscalers would challenge the cycle-continuation view.
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MRVL · Thu 08-27-2026 · after the close · our research
- ✅ Confirms: A meaningful sequential acceleration in data-center and AI networking revenue alongside improving operating margins would signal the growth expectations embedded in the valuation are being met.
- ⚠️ Breaks: Flat or declining data-center revenue, operating margin falling below 12%, or further reduction in institutional holder count would reinforce the thin-conviction, orphan assessment.
📅 The week ahead: Aug 24 – Aug 28
Economic releases
🏠 08-25-2026 · Housing starts
🌐 08-26-2026 · GDP · 🔴 high impact
🔥 08-26-2026 · PCE inflation · 🔴 high impact
🛒 08-28-2026 · Consumer sentiment
Earnings to watch
🗓️ INTU · 08-25-2026
🗓️ CRM · 08-26-2026
🗓️ CRWD · 08-26-2026
🗓️ NVDA · 08-26-2026
🗓️ MRVL · 08-27-2026
💡 What this means
Next week brings two high-impact prints on the same day: the GDP revision and PCE inflation, both due Wednesday the 26th. PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, so landing it alongside a growth read in the same session historically widens intraday ranges and can shift rate-path expectations quickly. NVDA, CRM, and CRWD all report after the close that same day, making Wednesday a particularly information-dense session. With the VIX already climbing from 14.25 to 16.01 this week, that compressed calendar is worth keeping in mind when sizing positions heading into the open.
Informational only. Not personalized advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything.
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