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Veo 4 Release Date: 70% Odds for Google I/O 2026 (Veo 3.1 Lite Live)

Google has not officially released Veo 4. The latest official video model is Veo 3.1, and the most recent expansion is Veo 3.1 Lite (April 2026 model card).

But the timing is interesting. Google I/O 2026 starts May 19 — the day after I'm writing this. The historical Veo cadence (May 2024 → Late 2024 → 2025 → Late 2025/Early 2026) makes Veo 4 the obvious flagship video model to watch. If you're building agent or content pipelines, this is the week to have your migration checklist ready.

Sharing what I found while preparing for it.

TL;DR

  • Veo 4: not announced as of May 18, 2026
  • Veo 3.1: the official latest flagship
  • Veo 3.1 Lite: April 2026 lower-cost variant
  • Google I/O 2026: May 19-20 — best probability window for a Veo 4 reveal (~70% in my read)
  • Veo 3.1 standard price: $0.40/sec at 720p/1080p

What's officially live right now

Google's DeepMind Veo page lists Veo 3.1 as the state-of-the-art model. The Gemini API video docs confirm:

  • Text to video ✅
  • Image to video ✅
  • Native audio ✅
  • First + last frame generation ✅
  • Video extension (preview) ✅
  • Reference images ✅
  • 4K output (priced) ✅

There is no Veo 4 model card, no Vertex AI Veo 4 model ID, no Gemini API pricing entry for Veo 4 anywhere on Google domains as of this writing.

The release window math

Model Public Timing
Veo May 2024
Veo 2 Late 2024
Veo 3 2025
Veo 3.1 Late 2025 / early 2026
Veo 3.1 Lite April 2026
Veo 4 ?

My probability estimate:

Window Probability
Google I/O 2026 keynote (May 19-20) 70%
June-July 2026 20%
Later 2026 10%

Not a confirmed date. Just a read of Google's release cadence and how I/O has been used for prior Veo announcements.

Current Veo 3.1 API pricing — the baseline Veo 4 has to beat

Per Gemini API pricing:

Model 720p 1080p 4K
Veo 3.1 Standard $0.40/sec $0.40/sec $0.60/sec
Veo 3.1 Fast $0.10/sec $0.12/sec $0.30/sec
Veo 3.1 Lite $0.05/sec $0.08/sec N/A

For an 8-second clip:

Model 8s 720p 8s 1080p 8s 4K
Veo 3.1 Standard $3.20 $3.20 $4.80
Veo 3.1 Fast $0.80 $0.96 $2.40
Veo 3.1 Lite $0.40 $0.64 N/A

At 1,000 × 8s 720p clips per month, that's $400 (Lite) → $3,200 (Standard). The unit cost matters at production scale.

What Veo 4 would actually need to ship

Not "prettier output." Controllability.

Area Veo 3.1 today What Veo 4 needs
Clip length 4-8s Longer coherent shots
Audio Native Better dialogue timing
Character consistency Improved, workflow-dependent Multi-shot identity retention
Scene control First/last frame, refs, object insert Granular camera/motion control
Physics Strong internal benchmarks Fewer continuity errors
Editing Flow workflows True inpainting / selective rerender
API Preview model IDs Stable IDs, batch economics

Production teams need to revise one object, keep a face consistent across shots, or extend a scene without restarting. That's the workflow jump that actually matters.

Three real routes to use Veo today

1. Gemini App / Flow      (creators, non-technical)
2. Gemini API             (developer)
   veo-3.1-generate-preview
   veo-3.1-fast-generate-preview
   veo-3.1-lite-generate-preview
3. Vertex AI              (enterprise, governance)
   veo-2.0-generate-001
   veo-3.0-generate-001
   veo-3.0-fast-generate-001
   veo-3.1-generate-preview
   veo-3.1-fast-generate-preview
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My migration checklist before Veo 4 lands

Whether Veo 4 ships next week or in Q4 2026, the prep work is the same:

# Action Effort
1 Save current Veo 3.1 prompts and outputs 1h
2 Build a 50-prompt video eval set 2-4h
3 Track accepted vs rejected generations Half day
4 Separate creative prompts from API parameters 1 day
5 Add model ID as config, not hardcode 30m
6 Compare Veo 4 vs Veo 3.1 Fast/Standard Launch day
7 Measure cost per usable clip, not per generation 1-2 days
8 Keep Veo 3.1 Lite for bulk drafts Ongoing

Don't migrate just because newer. Migrate if it cuts retries, improves controllability, or unlocks a workflow Veo 3.1 can't handle.

Code-wise, the cleanest pattern:

# config.py
VIDEO_MODEL = os.environ.get("VIDEO_MODEL", "veo-3.1-fast-generate-preview")

# generator.py
def generate_clip(prompt: str, **kwargs):
    return client.generate_videos(model=VIDEO_MODEL, prompt=prompt, **kwargs)
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When Veo 4 lands, set VIDEO_MODEL=veo-4.0-generate-preview (assuming Google follows naming conventions) and re-run your eval set. If accepted-clip cost drops, migrate. If not, hold.

Where I track this stuff

Personally I keep an eye on the model availability and pricing changes through TokenMix.ai's model intelligence dashboard — it tracks 170+ models across vendors and surfaces when new model IDs appear, when prices shift, and when something gets deprecated. Helpful for not missing the moment a Veo 4 endpoint actually opens up. Full writeup of the Veo 4 release date analysis, all pricing tables, and the migration checklist is on the main site at tokenmix.ai/blog/veo-4-release-date-google-io-2026.

Bottom line

If you're shipping video generation work this week, use Veo 3.1 (or Wan 2.6 if cost-per-second matters more than audio quality). Have your eval suite and config-driven model switch ready. Then watch the Google I/O 2026 keynote May 19-20 — if Veo 4 drops there, you can swap and re-bench in an afternoon. If it doesn't drop, the prep work still applies for the next time Google ships a flagship.

Curious if anyone has insider signal on the Veo 4 timing — drop a comment if you've seen anything more concrete than "coming soon."

All data verified May 18, 2026.

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