The Great Exodus: Collapsed Nations and the Tide of Migration
When a nation's government and core institutions collapse, the human cost is immeasurable. The immediate consequence is often a massive wave of migration, as millions are forced to flee conflict, persecution, violence, and economic devastation. The vast majority of people affected often become internally displaced or seek refuge in neighboring, low-to-middle-income countries that struggle to cope with the influx of people.
Two countries in particular, Afghanistan and Somalia, stand as stark examples of how prolonged state collapse and instability create some of the world's most significant and protracted displacement crises.
Afghanistan: Decades of Disruption
For over four decades, Afghanistan has been a primary source of forced migration, making the Afghan refugee situation one of the largest and most enduring crises globally. The reasons are layered and complex: a history of invasion, civil war, and the recent tumultuous return of the Taliban in 2021.
The collapse of the internationally-backed government and the subsequent withdrawal of international aid triggered an immediate and severe fiscal and humanitarian shock, leaving over half the population in need of assistance. The lack of security, economic opportunity, and the severe erosion of human rights (particularly for women and girls) has left many Afghans with no choice but to leave.
Today, nearly 6 million Afghans are refugees abroad, primarily finding shelter in neighboring Iran and Pakistan. Another several million are internally displaced within the country, having been uprooted from their homes by violence and natural disasters. The crisis continues to unfold, with host nations at times implementing mass deportations, forcing individuals back into a highly unstable environment.
Somalia: A Nexus of Conflict and Climate
Somalia is consistently ranked among the world's most fragile states, having experienced prolonged state failure since the early 1990s. The absence of a strong central government has resulted in ongoing civil war, a persistent insurgency, and the rise of armed groups that control territory.
Compounding the conflict are the severe and recurring effects of climate change. The country is locked in the grip of a "permanent climate emergency," with historic droughts and severe flooding displacing millions. These environmental shocks exacerbate existing tensions and food insecurity, pushing vulnerable communities further into desperation.
Millions of Somalis are internally displaced, with large camps forming on the outskirts of cities like Mogadishu. Hundreds of thousands more have sought refuge in neighboring countries like Kenya and Ethiopia. The crisis in Somalia highlights the intersection of state collapse, conflict, and climate vulnerability as primary drivers of mass migration.
The Human Toll
These situations in Afghanistan and Somalia illustrate a critical global reality: state collapse results in humanitarian tragedies and massive movements of people. The burden of hosting these large displaced populations falls overwhelmingly on countries that are often already resource-strained themselves.
While global attention often shifts to newer conflicts, the silent, ongoing crises in nations like Afghanistan and Somalia continue to generate some of the largest, most challenging, and most protracted migration flows in the world, requiring sustained international support and a focus on long-term stability, not just emergency aid.
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