Agent Lab Vol 3 #05 is a decision simulator: play a decision forward under every declared assumption, on your own machine with no key and no network. It is the last project in Volume 3 — the volume is now complete at 5/5.
The fixture is invented, and for this one no real fixture could exist. A decision simulator is scored against a counterfactual: you only ever live one branch. There is no dataset of decisions with both outcomes attached, and there never will be. So one household, 4 decisions, 11 options, 7 assumptions and the 2,187 futures they enumerate were written by hand.
What is measured is therefore not whether the choices are right — there is no answer key for that — but what the sensitivity methods say about the same model.
Page: https://dev48.infy.uk/agentlab/vol3-05-decision-simulator.html
The tornado is blind where it matters
A tornado chart varies one assumption at a time around the base case. The base case is, by construction, where nothing goes wrong.
The length of an unpaid gap has a one-at-a-time swing of exactly zero — and it changes the answer in 486 of 729 triples of the grid.
Zero on the chart. Decisive in two thirds of the joint space. The variable does nothing on its own because at the base case there is no gap to be unpaid; it only bites in combination, and one-at-a-time analysis cannot see combinations by definition.
one-at-a-time swing : 0.00 <- what the tornado prints
answer changed in : 486 / 729 <- what the grid finds
That is not a flaw in the implementation. It is what varying one thing at a time means, and it is why the chart is most confident exactly where it is least informative.
The disclosure sits above every number
The card saying the fixture is invented is above the first table, not in a footnote — and the page states plainly that a measurement on invented data is weaker evidence than one on real data, full stop. Nothing here is financial, tax, legal or career advice.
113 pytest, 324 verifier asserts, 155 in-page checks, 0 failures. Python standard library only.
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