Do slower games give longer arbitrage windows? Partly. In 30 days of scanner history (Sep 6 – Oct 6, 2026), 59.1% of League of Legends arbs and 43.1% of Dota 2 arbs lasted 5 seconds or more, against 27.0% in CS2 and 29.0% in Valorant. But much of that gap is mix, not tempo: LoL and Dota 2 have far more prematch arbs than CS2, and prematch arbs last longer. At CS2's live/prematch mix, LoL falls to 38.0% and Dota 2 to 34.1%. The windows are still longer, by 7 to 11 points rather than 16 to 32. Below: the numbers by game, market and exchange leg, and the hypotheses we think explain them.
Dataset and method
- Window: 30 days, Sep 6 – Oct 6, 2026. Esports only, 27 books: 25 sportsbooks and crypto sportsbooks plus the exchanges Polymarket and Kalshi. About 4.87 million arbs in total; this article uses six games.
- Lifetime of an arb is last sighting minus first sighting, with a step of about 2 seconds. A median of 0 s means most arbs were seen in a single snapshot. We call 5 seconds or more a "working window". It is our threshold, not a promise a bet can be placed.
- ROI is the best ROI the arb reached. Exchange commissions are already taken off it, per market.
- Exchange leg means Polymarket or Kalshi is one of the books in the arb.
- Each line of a market counts as its own arb, so counts show how often books disagree, not how many independent chances there were.
Finding 1: esports arbitrage windows by game
| Game | Arbs | Median life | ≥5 s | ≥10 s | ≥60 s | Median ROI | Live share | With exchange leg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS2 | 3,617,804 | 2.0 s | 27.0% | 18.5% | 2.9% | 3.22% | 90.7% | 12.1% |
| Valorant | 228,529 | 2.0 s | 29.0% | 21.4% | 5.4% | 2.69% | 87.0% | 12.4% |
| Dota 2 | 548,410 | 4.1 s | 43.1% | 30.3% | 6.1% | 2.16% | 49.6% | 25.7% |
| League of Legends | 359,789 | 8.4 s | 59.1% | 49.9% | 15.4% | 1.82% | 37.3% | 42.5% |
| Mobile Legends | 25,099 | 10.1 s | 61.5% | 50.1% | 9.5% | 1.74% | 37.4% | 6.7% |
| Rainbow Six | 66,937 | 14.2 s | 60.7% | 54.0% | 11.1% | 1.99% | 58.4% | 13.3% |
The ranking by median life roughly matches the ranking by tail. It also roughly matches the ranking by margin, in reverse: the median ROI is 3.22% in CS2, 2.16% in Dota 2 and 1.82% in LoL. Longer windows come with thinner edges. More on the titles: esports arbitrage and the Dota 2 surebets guide.
Finding 2: a large part of the gap is live vs prematch mix
Live and prematch arbs behave differently, and the games have very different mixes. 90.7% of CS2 arbs are live; for Dota 2 it is 49.6% and for LoL 37.3%. So we split by status.
| Game | Live share | ≥5 s, live | ≥5 s, prematch | ≥5 s, all | ≥5 s at CS2's mix |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CS2 | 90.7% | 23.0% | 66.3% | 27.0% | 27.0% |
| Valorant | 87.0% | 22.9% | 69.3% | 29.0% | 27.2% |
| Dota 2 | 49.6% | 32.0% | 54.0% | 43.1% | 34.1% |
| League of Legends | 37.3% | 34.3% | 73.9% | 59.1% | 38.0% |
The last column re-weights each game's live and prematch numbers to CS2's 90.7% / 9.3% split. On this basis 66% of LoL's gap to CS2 and 56% of Dota 2's is mix. What remains is real but modest: in live play, 32.0% (Dota 2) and 34.3% (LoL) of arbs last 5 seconds or more, against 23.0% in CS2. Minute-long live arbs are rare everywhere: 1.2% in CS2, 1.8% in Dota 2, 2.8% in LoL. Live medians are 2.0 s for CS2, Dota 2 and LoL.
One caution on Dota 2. Two tournaments, BLAST Slam VIII and PGL Wallachia Season 9, produced 375,324 of its 548,410 arbs (68%), and BLAST Slam VIII alone was 83% prematch. Without them, Dota 2 is 90% live, with 34.0% of live arbs lasting 5 seconds or more and a prematch median of 18.7 s. The live conclusion holds; the prematch comparison with CS2 depends on which events were running.
Finding 3: which Dota 2 and LoL markets last
In live play, the main markets look alike. Live arbs lasting 5 seconds or more, by market:
| Market | Dota 2 live arbs | ≥5 s | LoL live arbs | ≥5 s |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner (match and map) | 153,535 | 33.6% | 82,482 | 33.7% |
| Handicap (maps) | 42,610 | 29.9% | 15,379 | 32.4% |
| Total (maps) | 30,938 | 29.4% | 12,671 | 28.2% |
| Total kills | 31,241 | 27.5% | 12,814 | 41.0% |
| Kill handicap | 7,487 | 32.2% | 4,405 | 37.2% |
| Map duration total | 2,248 | 41.0% | 2,154 | 45.0% |
Kills markets are where the games differ. In LoL, live total-kills and kill-handicap arbs outlast the winner markets (41.0% and 37.2% against 33.7%); in Dota 2 total kills is shorter (27.5% against 33.6%). Map-duration totals last longest of the live markets in both games. See total kills for how the market works.
The longest windows in the data are not live at all. Object props, such as dragons, barons, towers and inhibitors, have medians of 39 to 52 seconds:
- LoL: total dragons 21,557 arbs, median 42.6 s; total barons 13,353, 39.4 s; total towers 12,207, 42.6 s; total inhibitors 9,143, 49.8 s (44.5% lasted a minute or more).
- Dota 2: total towers 11,927 arbs, median 51.5 s (47.3% lasted a minute or more). First barracks is shorter: 18,788 arbs, median 6.2 s.
Only 0.2% to 2.4% of these arbs were live, and none had an exchange leg. They are prematch prop lines, and in our reading they sit untouched between updates. Among the six largest LoL pairs, the one with the longest windows, Gamdom with Leon, trades almost only these: dragons and map duration were 97% of its 15,930 arbs, with 97.6% lasting 5 seconds or more.
Finding 4: the exchange leg
Exchanges are far more present in the slow games. The share of arbs with a Polymarket or Kalshi leg is 42.5% in LoL (Polymarket 32.7%, Kalshi 10.1%), 25.7% in Dota 2 and 12.1% in CS2. In live LoL, Polymarket is in 45.5% of arbs. For the LoL match winner, 75.8% of arbs have an exchange leg.
Does an exchange leg lengthen the window? It depends on the game. Share of arbs lasting 5 seconds or more, live only, without and with an exchange leg:
- CS2: 21.9% and 33.6%.
- Dota 2: 30.2% and 36.0%.
- LoL: 34.9% and 33.8%. No lift.
In LoL prematch the order is even reversed (80.2% without an exchange, 62.3% with one), likely because books-only arbs include the long-lived object props above. The largest pairs with an exchange: Olimp – Polymarket in LoL (27,348 arbs, 53.3% lasting 5 s or more, median 6.1 s) and in Dota 2 (34,618, 39.5%); 1xBet – Polymarket in LoL (19,497, 52.9%); Kalshi – Olimp in LoL (11,246, 49.0%). More on the exchange side: prediction market arbitrage and the Polymarket and Kalshi pages.
Why slower games last longer: three hypotheses
These are our readings. We did not measure causes.
- Tempo of repricing. A CS2 line can change after every round; a LoL or Dota 2 line moves mostly on kills, towers and other objects. The map-duration totals in our arbs have a median line of 32 minutes in LoL and 40 minutes in Dota 2, so there is more time between events.
- Prop lines nobody refreshes. Object props are prematch and likely quoted by few books. The 40 to 50 second windows come from there, and they inflate the numbers for the slow games.
- Exchange pricing. Exchange prices move when someone trades, so a stale order waits. The lift from an exchange leg in live CS2 and Dota 2 fits that. Live LoL shows no lift, so at best it is part of the story.
Rainbow Six is a round-based shooter like CS2 but has live windows closer to the MOBAs (39.2% of live arbs lasting 5 s or more). With 66,937 arbs it is a small sample, and a pure tempo story does not explain it.
What to do with it
A longer window only matters if the quote is fresh. Check price age on every leg: a 6% LoL arb that is 30 seconds old is more likely a stale line than an opportunity. Dozor shows bookmakers and the two exchanges on one screen, with ROI and quote age per leg, and a rule for alerts can be limited to one game, minimum ROI, bookmakers and live or prematch. Split stakes with the surebet calculator; see the screens for live and prematch arbs.
FAQ
Is Dota 2 or LoL better for arbitrage than CS2? Windows are longer and margins thinner. 59.1% of LoL arbs and 43.1% of Dota 2 arbs lasted 5 seconds or more against 27.0% in CS2, with median ROI of 1.82% and 2.16% against 3.22%.
How long do LoL betting arbitrage opportunities last? The median is 8.4 s overall: 2.0 s live and 22.8 s prematch. In live play 34.3% last 5 seconds or more and 2.8% last a minute.
Do Polymarket and Kalshi have arbs on Dota 2 and LoL? Yes, and more than on CS2: 42.5% of LoL arbs and 25.7% of Dota 2 arbs had a Polymarket or Kalshi leg, against 12.1% in CS2.
Which markets have the longest windows? Prematch object props: total towers, dragons, barons and inhibitors, with medians of 39 to 52 seconds. Among live markets with at least 2,000 arbs, map-duration totals (LoL 45.0% lasting 5 s or more, Dota 2 41.0%) and LoL total kills (41.0%) last longest.
Try it on live data
Dozor puts 25 sportsbooks and the Polymarket and Kalshi exchanges on one screen, with ROI, quote age and a direct link to the event for every arb. The Free plan needs no card and has no time limit: all arbs with ROI up to 1% are shown in full with no delay, and above that you see the count and the best ROI. Start at dozor.bet/en.
Data from Dozor scanner history, Sep 6 – Oct 6, 2026. Dozor is an information tool, not a bookmaker. 18+. Betting involves risk of loss; sportsbooks may restrict arbitrage accounts.
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