Friends debating "is AI a bubble?" in the group chat. Hot takes flying. Zero data.
Then I remembered: there's a prediction market for this.
What the money says
Polymarket has $305k in bets on AI bubble timing:
- Burst by Dec 2025: <1%
- By March 2026: 7%
- By Dec 2026: 30%
That's not vibes. That's quantified probability backed by real money.
Why this beats pundit opinions
Bettors are incentivized to be RIGHT. Wrong predictions cost real money. No hot takes for engagement, no tribalism, no "I was just speculating."
There's also a "quiet smart money" effect. Domain experts who never tweet still bet. Their knowledge gets priced in silently.
The takeaway
Next time you see a heated debate about the future - AI timelines, election outcomes, crypto predictions - check if there's a prediction market for it.
The price IS the crowd's honest opinion.
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