On 22 July, 2025, the Women’s EURO 2025 semifinal was held.
The defending champion, England, faced Italy, who reached the semifinals with a strong defensive style.
Before the match, an AI prediction (Murning Machine learning) showed England had a 55% chance to win, slightly ahead. As predicted, England won a dramatic 2-1 victory after extra time and advanced to the final.
Here is a data-driven analysis of the match.
Final Score:
England 2-1 Italy (after extra time)
Goal Summary:
33’ First Half Italy Bonansea B.(Cantore S) (0-1)
90+6’ Second Half England Agyemang M. (1-1)
119’ Extra Time England Kelly C. (2-1)
Key Match Data Summary (Based on Flashscore)
| Half | Shots (on target) | xG | Big Chances | Possession (%) | Corners | Pass Accuracy (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Half | England 5 (2) Italy 4 (1) |
0.49 vs 0.81 | 0 vs 1 | 55 vs 45 | 1 vs 2 | 86 vs 78 |
| Second Half | England 13 (2) Italy 6 (3) |
1.34 vs 0.28 | 2 vs 1 | 65 vs 35 | 6 vs 1 | 81 vs 71 |
| Extra Time | England 6 (3) Italy 1 (1) |
1.09 vs 0.03 | 2 vs 0 | 52 vs 48 | 3 vs 0 | 83 vs 77 |
| Total | England 24 (7) Italy 11 (5) |
2.92 vs 1.12 | 4 vs 2 | 58 vs 43 | 10 vs 3 | 83 vs 76 |
1. First Half Analysis (0-1, Italy Leads)
- Data: England 5 shots (2 on target), xG 0.49 / Italy 4 shots (1 on target), xG 0.81
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Insight:
- England controlled the game with 55% possession and 86% pass accuracy but had no big chances, showing low efficiency.
- Italy scored the first goal at 33 minutes with short counter-attacks and high efficiency.
- The first half was a battle between Italy’s strong defense and England’s weak attack.
2. Second Half Analysis (1-0, England Equalizes)
- Data: England 13 shots (2 on target), xG 1.34 / Italy 6 shots (3 on target), xG 0.28
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Insight:
- England increased pressure with 65% possession, 6 corners, and successful crosses 10/28.
- Italy’s defense weakened due to fatigue, and possession dropped to 35%.
- The 90+6’ equalizer came from continuous pressure and set-piece use.
3. Extra Time Analysis (1-0, England Wins)
- Data: England 6 shots (3 on target), xG 1.09 / Italy 1 shot (1 on target), xG 0.03
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Insight:
- Italy’s possession rose to 48% as they tried to stabilize early in extra time.
- England focused on efficiency rather than possession, scoring the winning goal at 119’ from 1 of 2 big chances.
- A defensive error by Italy led to the winning goal.
4. Overall Analysis (Keys to Victory)
1) Strong attack after halftime
- Shots in second half + extra time: England 19 vs Italy 7
- xG in second half + extra time: 2.43 vs 0.31
2) Italy’s defense weakened by fatigue
- Possession dropped to 35% in the second half, reducing their counter-attacks.
3) Effective set-pieces and crosses
- Crosses: 13/40 in second half + extra time, corners 9 → good side attacks.
4) Mental strength and late-game focus
- Similar to the Sweden match, England showed strong concentration in the second half.
- Scored dramatic goals at 90+6’ and 119’, proving the champion’s resilience.
5. Shot xG Scatter Plot by Match Half(Based on Fbref)
The graph below shows shots’ xG (expected goals) and time for first half, second half, and extra time.
It helps compare when and how threatening England’s and Italy’s shots were.
- First Half: Italy showed efficient attacks clearly on the xG plot.
- Second Half: England increased shots and built up higher xG clearly.
- Extra Time: England kept focus to create big chances until the very end.
Final Thought
The defending champion England was blocked by Italy’s strong defense in the first half but changed the game after halftime with overwhelming possession, set-pieces, and crosses, scoring a late equalizer at 90+6’ and a winning goal at 119’ to survive again.
🙋♀️About Me
Hi, I’m Marina Kim (Eunji), a sports data content creator learning and sharing football stories through data.
Tools: Python, pandas, matplotlib, Seaborn
Data Source: Flashscore, fbret
Github: https://github.com/k-eunji/eng_it_sf
I’m open to new opportunities in sports data and content creation. Let’s connect if you’re interested!
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