Crisis and Signals in the Noise: The Anatomy of an Economic Transformation

This article provides an in-depth analysis of contemporary economic transformation, drawing on the thinking of Mohamed El-Erian. The central research problem is the difficulty in distinguishing significant market signals from information noise in an era of rapid development of artificial intelligence. The text deconstructs classical market models, which incorrectly assume a return to stable equilibrium, and introduces the concept of stable disequilibrium. The authors examine the role of shadow banking, the procyclicality of algorithms, and the influence of wealth funds on global capital flows. The analysis also encompasses aspects of behavioral economics, such as the disposition effect and narrative bubbles, which distort the price discovery process. This is essential reading for those seeking to understand the structural shifts between the core and periphery of the global financial system and prepare for the arrival of so-called black swans in the new economic reality.