Introduction:
The FIDE Chess World Cup 2025, held in Goa, India, features 206 players in a high-stakes knockout format. This article presents a Monte Carlo simulation approach to estimate each participant’s chance of winning. The analysis below uses the official participants list and published FIDE ratings (June 2025 snapshot) as its primary data sources.
Tournament & Data Overview:
The tournament involves 206 players in a single‑elimination bracket. Top seeds receive byes into later rounds, and the official participants list published on the tournament site provides seed, federation, title and classical rating for each player. Key data fields used: Player name, FIDE classical rating (June 2025), federation, and seed.
Modelling Approach:
Match-level probability is computed using the Elo expected-score formula: E_A = 1 / (1 + 10^((R_B - R_A)/400)), where R_A and R_B are the classical ratings of players A and B. The model assumes classical games have a non-zero draw rate, and ties after the classical mini-match are resolved using a simplified tiebreak model that reflects rapid/blitz variance.
Monte Carlo simulation: The full draw is modelled using the 206-player structure and official seeding; thousands of tournaments are simulated. Each match outcome is sampled probabilistically from the players' computed match chances. Aggregating many trials yields estimated win probabilities, and secondary metrics such as probability of reaching quarter-finals and semi-finals.
Monte Carlo simulation using official participants (June/Oct 2025 ratings).
This simulation uses the classical draw-rate assumption to 0.55 and ran 20,000 Monte Carlo trials. The match model uses 2 classical games with tiebreak rapid/blitz approximated by 4 rapid games (draw rate 0.20). Byes were allocated to top seeds to reach a power-of-two bracket.
Top comments (0)