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How to Calculate Cricket Arbitrage: The Maths Behind Guaranteed Profits

#cricket #javascript #programming #webdev

Most people who discover cricket arbitrage betting make the same mistake — they understand the concept immediately but then reach for a spreadsheet to do the stake calculations. By the time they've typed in the odds and formulas, the window has closed.

I've been building CricketArb for the past few months, and one of the most common questions I get is: how do I actually calculate what to stake on each side?

Let me break down the exact maths, then point you to the free tool that does it live as you type.

The Core Formula

For a two-outcome match:

Arb% = (1 / Odds_A) + (1 / Odds_B)
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If Arb% is below 1.00 (100%), you have an arbitrage opportunity. Profit margin = 1 - Arb%.

Real IPL 2026 example:

  • Bet365: CSK to win @ 2.10
  • Betfair: MI to win @ 2.05 
Arb% = (1/2.10) + (1/2.05) = 0.4762 + 0.4878 = 0.9640
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That's 3.6% guaranteed profit regardless of result.

Stake Allocation

You don't split 50/50. You allocate proportionally so both outcomes return the same amount.

With ₹10,000 total stake:

Stake_A = 10000 × (1/2.10) / 0.9640 = ₹4,940
Stake_B = 10000 - 4940 = ₹5,060
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Verification:

  • Bet365: ₹4,940 × 2.10 = ₹10,374
  • Betfair: ₹5,060 × 2.05 = ₹10,373

Both return ₹10,373 → guaranteed ₹373 profit on ₹10,000 stake.

Why Manual Calculation Fails in Practice

During live IPL, odds move every few seconds. By the time you've opened a spreadsheet, one of three things has happened: the window closed, you made an error under pressure, or you staked the wrong amount on one side.

This is why I built the cricket arbitrage calculator — it recalculates on every keystroke, shows you the arb percentage live, and generates a Telegram-ready summary you can paste instantly.

3-Way Arbs (Test Cricket / Draw Markets) 

Arb% = (1/Odds_A) + (1/Odds_Draw) + (1/Odds_B)
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Same rule: below 100% = sure bet. The calculator handles 3-way arbs with a single toggle.

The Polymarket Edge

Pure bookmaker vs bookmaker arbs are increasingly rare. The real edge is cross-platform arbs between traditional bookmakers and prediction markets.

Polymarket prices cricket outcomes in cents (52¢ = 52% implied probability). Their trader base is crypto-native, not cricket-native. When a wicket falls during an IPL powerplay, Bet365 reprices in under 5 seconds. Polymarket can take 30-60 seconds. That lag is where the best windows open.

More detail in the full cricket arbitrage calculator guide — includes worked IPL 2026 examples and a walkthrough of every calculator output metric.

If "sure bet" is the terminology you know, that guide is also covered at sure bet calculator for cricket — same maths, additional PSL examples.

Try It

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