Introduction
I could not really think of a topic to write about today, so I would like to write a short memo based on something I recently experienced and what I learned from it. I am not sure if it will be useful for everyone, but if you are interested, I would be happy if you read it.
Recently, I had a day with many tasks that required brainstorming. More specifically, they involved things like coming up with ideas, planning, and designing the structure of future work.
I had already organized what I needed to do, so the tasks were neatly listed in my task list. If I only looked at the number of tasks, it did not look like too much.
I thought, “I should be able to move through this in one day.” But in reality, even by the evening, I had not finished everything. I had to move one task to the next day, and several other tasks were only partially done rather than completed.
Tasks That Are Easy to Estimate and Tasks That Are Not
What I realized again from this experience is that it can be risky to estimate the weight of a day only by the number of tasks.
This may sound very obvious. However, when tasks are lined up one by one in a task list, they can start to look like they all have a similar weight. At least in my case, I think I was unconsciously seeing them that way.
Some types of work are easy to estimate.
For example, a one-hour meeting, work that is scheduled for a fixed number of hours, or simple tasks with clear steps have a relatively visible time frame.
On the other hand, tasks like brainstorming and planning are a little different.
After you start thinking, you may need to organize the assumptions, compare different options, or notice another issue along the way. The same applies to programming design or planning work. There are parts that you cannot really estimate until you actually start working on them.
In a task list, every task appears as a single line.
But in reality, their weight can be completely different.
Even a task like “check the materials” may finish quickly depending on the content, or it may take much longer if it requires judgment.
Tasks like “think about a project,” “decide the design,” or “decide the direction of an article” may look short in the list, but they can require a lot of mental effort.
In other words, having only a small number of tasks does not necessarily mean the day will be light.
There Are Limits to Estimation
Then, you might think that the answer is to estimate more carefully at the beginning.
Of course, some level of estimation is necessary. Rather than listing tasks without thinking, it is better to separate them into things like “this seems heavy” and “this seems quick.”
However, when it comes to thinking-based tasks, there are limits to estimation. This is because there are many things you cannot know until you actually start.
Sometimes, you only notice the complexity of the problem after you begin working.
Sometimes, another option appears while you are thinking.
Sometimes, it takes time just to organize what you actually need to decide.
In other words, at the estimation stage, the inside of the task may not be fully visible yet.
If that is the case, spending too much time on estimation can become another heavy task in itself.
Maybe the important thing is not to predict everything perfectly, but to plan with the assumption that some tasks cannot be fully predicted.
What I Can Do
Since perfect prediction is difficult, it may be more realistic to make plans on the assumption that some tasks are hard to estimate. For example, there are a few things I can do.
- Create a buffer
On days with many thinking-based tasks, I can keep the schedule a little lighter.
Instead of assuming that everything will go according to plan, I can leave room for the possibility that something may take longer than expected.
Especially on days with tasks like brainstorming or planning, it feels safer to leave some open space.
- Avoid putting too many thinking-based tasks into one day
If I put many tasks like brainstorming, planning, writing structure, or project decisions into the same day, the day becomes heavier than the number of tasks suggests.
Even if the number of tasks looks small, the overall load can be quite high if they require a lot of thinking.
Also, even if I manage to finish those tasks, they create a different kind of fatigue compared to finishing simple tasks. When my brain is tired, it can affect the quality of later decisions and work.
So, on days with many thinking-based tasks, it seems better to leave some extra room from the beginning.
- Set a midpoint instead of aiming for completion
Thinking-based tasks can feel heavy if I assume that I must complete them on the same day.
For example, it may be more realistic to set a midpoint as the goal, such as:
- Come up with three possible directions
- Create a rough draft
- Gather materials for making a decision
- Organize what needs to be decided next
Sometimes, I start a task thinking it will finish quickly, but after beginning, I realize that it is heavier than expected. In that case, instead of trying to force myself to finish everything, it may be better to break the task down at that point and decide how far I will go today.
The goal is not necessarily to “finish” it, but to bring it to a state where I can move forward next time.
- Mark tasks that are hard to estimate
Some tasks are easy to estimate, and others are not.
If I label tasks in advance as “hard to estimate,” it becomes harder to judge the day only by the number of tasks.
For example, tasks like brainstorming, planning, decision-making, research, and writing structure can have a label such as “estimation caution.”
Even that small label can help me notice, when building a schedule, that “this is only one line, but it may not be light.”
Conclusion
Today, I wrote about a pitfall in task estimation that can happen when I try to process tasks too mechanically.
Of course, I understand in my head that not all tasks in a task list have the same weight. If the content is different, the required time and concentration are different too.
However, when I am tired or when I make daily plans without thinking too deeply, I can end up deciding the day’s tasks without paying enough attention to those differences. At least, I feel that this was happening to me.
Especially with thinking-based tasks like brainstorming and planning, a single line in a task list can expand much more than expected. Even if the number of tasks is small, the day can become quite heavy if they require a lot of mental effort.
Personally, when I make a plan for the day and cannot finish it as planned, it can affect me mentally for a while. That is why I think daily planning is actually quite important. When I plan the day, I want to look not only at the number of tasks, but also at their weight and how difficult they are to estimate.
It is difficult to estimate everything perfectly.
But even just noticing, “This task may be hard to estimate,” can change the way I make a schedule.
Just because the number of tasks is small, it does not necessarily mean the day will be light.
I would like to keep this in mind when planning my days from now on.
Thank you for reading!
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