After November's Layoff Wave, December Opens Quiet: Just 721 Workers Scheduled

November is set to be a heavy month for planned layoffs in the United States. December, at least so far, is not. Fresh WARN data shows 29,694 workers scheduled for effective dates across November's five weekly buckets — and then just 721 workers in the week of December 6. That is a drop of nearly 91 percent from the mid-November peak, and it is worth understanding for what it is — and what it is not.

These figures describe reported plans, not confirmed job losses. WARN notices are advance notifications of qualifying mass layoffs and plant closures, filed with state labor agencies. A filing means an employer has announced a plan; it does not guarantee that every listed worker will ultimately lose their job, and counts can change as plans are revised. Coverage also varies by state, so the totals below are a picture of the published record, not a census of all layoffs.

The national picture right now

Layoff Atlas currently tracks 686 notices covering 66,703 reported workers in its 90-day notice window, with 29 counts unavailable. California leads the state ranking with 17,715 reported workers, followed by Washington with 17,361. Illinois (4,385), Texas (3,280) and Georgia (2,492) round out the top five. Together, those five states account for 45,233 workers — roughly two-thirds of the national window total — which is a reminder that the national story is heavily shaped by a handful of large states.

November, week by week

The five weekly buckets that make up November tell a clear story of a wave that builds, peaks, and then eases:

• Week of November 1: 4,017 workers. This is the week now under way, and it includes filings effective around the turn of the month, such as the 83-worker Haynes Furniture closure in Virginia, effective October 31.
• Week of November 8: 5,311 workers. A step up from the current week.
• Week of November 15: 7,830 workers. The heaviest week on the calendar — the peak of the wave.
• Week of November 22: 6,614 workers. Still heavy, falling in Thanksgiving week.
• Week of November 29: 5,922 workers. The wave's tail, still above the November weekly average's lower end.

Added together, November's five weeks total 29,694 workers — about 45 percent of the entire 90-day window total of 66,703. In other words, nearly half of all workers in the current published record have effective dates falling in November alone. That concentration is the story of the next month: a large share of announced plans comes due within a few weeks of each other.

Then comes the cliff

The week of December 6 shows just 721 workers scheduled. That is about 2.4 percent of the six-week total of 30,415 workers spanning November 1 through December 6, and about 88 percent below November's weekly average of roughly 5,939 workers. Compared with the November 15 peak of 7,830, it is a drop of just over 90 percent.

Three cautions apply before drawing conclusions from that cliff. First, the December bucket is the furthest out on the calendar shown, and new notices with December effective dates can still be filed in the coming weeks — the bucket will fill in as employers announce plans. Second, effective-week totals only include records with published effective dates; filings with unavailable dates sit outside these buckets entirely. Third, the 90-day window rolls forward every day, so older notices drop out and newer ones enter, shifting the totals. Today's quiet December could look busier by mid-November, just as November's totals have shifted repeatedly over the past month.

What to watch next

The most useful way to read this data is as a schedule, not a verdict. The November wave is already locked into the calendar in the sense that notices have been filed and dates published — but individual plans can still be postponed, extended or cancelled, and employers sometimes file additional notices that change the picture. Workers with a November effective date should check the specifics of their own notice, including whether it covers their site and role, rather than relying on the national totals.

For everyone else, the December figure is the number to keep an eye on. If it stays low as November progresses, the wave will have a clean ending. If it climbs week by week, the layoff calendar is simply extending rather than ending. Either way, the pattern so far is unmistakable: a heavy November, led by the week of November 15, followed — for now — by a much quieter December.

Data source: Layoff Atlas