Half of the Next Six Weeks' Scheduled Layoffs Fall in Two Mid-November Weeks

The next six weeks of scheduled layoffs in the United States are not spread evenly. They are bunched into the middle of November, with a long, quiet tail at the start of December.

Layoff Atlas currently lists 30,881 workers with effective dates in the six weeks from October 31 through December 5. Of that total, 15,378 workers — just under half, at 49.8 percent — are scheduled in just two weeks: the week of November 14, with 8,453 workers, and the week of November 21, with 6,925 workers. The remaining four weeks combined account for 15,503 workers, only slightly more than those two weeks alone.

These are reported plans, not confirmed job losses. The figures come from WARN notices, advance notifications of qualifying mass layoffs and plant closures filed with state labor agencies. A notice describes what an employer planned at filing; plans can change, dates can move, and some scheduled separations may not happen as filed. Coverage varies by state, so the totals describe what has been reported, not every layoff in the country.

The shape of the next six weeks

Week by week, the picture looks like this:

• Week of October 31: 4,394 workers
• Week of November 7: 4,326 workers
• Week of November 14: 8,453 workers
• Week of November 21: 6,925 workers
• Week of November 28: 5,937 workers
• Week of December 5: 846 workers

The average week in this window carries about 5,147 workers. The week of November 14 sits roughly 64 percent above that average; the week of December 5 sits roughly 84 percent below it. The heaviest week is almost exactly ten times the lightest: 8,453 workers against 846.

The first two weeks are close to each other and close to the average. October 31 brings 4,394 workers and November 7 brings 4,326, a difference of just 68. Together they account for 8,720 workers, or 28.2 percent of the total. Then the schedule jumps: November 14 alone adds nearly as many workers as those first two weeks combined.

After the peak, the numbers step down rather than falling off a cliff. November 21, at 6,925 workers, is still the second-heaviest week, and November 28, at 5,937, is the third-heaviest. Only in the final week, December 5, does the schedule drop sharply, to 846 workers — less than a fifth of the November 7 figure, the second-lightest week.

Why concentration matters

A concentrated schedule matters for workers and for the local services that support them. When thousands of separations land in the same week, unemployment offices, job centers, and retraining programs in the affected areas face a surge of demand at once, rather than a steady flow. It also matters for interpretation: a single heavy week does not necessarily mean layoffs are accelerating overall. It can mean that several large filings simply share nearby effective dates.

The six-week total is a snapshot of effective dates as currently reported, not a forecast. New notices arrive regularly, and each new filing adds workers to a future week or revises an existing one. The shape of this window will change as the data refreshes, and the December 5 figure in particular is likely to grow as more notices with early-December effective dates are filed.

For context, the 90-day notice window currently counts 681 notices covering 66,471 reported workers, with 28 counts unavailable. The six-week upcoming total of 30,881 is about 46 percent of that figure — a reminder that a large share of recently reported layoff plans is still ahead, not yet effective.

Two states still dominate the national picture

Geography is concentrated, too. California leads with 17,715 reported workers in the 90-day window, followed closely by Washington with 17,361. Together they account for 35,076 workers, about 53 percent of the national total. Illinois (4,385), Texas (3,280), and Georgia (2,492) round out the top five, which combined account for 45,233 workers, about 68 percent of the total.

That concentration has persisted in recent snapshots, with the next states far behind.

State-level numbers should also be read with care. States differ in how they publish WARN notices, how quickly they update their lists, and whether their laws require notice for smaller layoffs. A state with a lower total may have fewer reported layoffs, or it may simply have thinner public reporting. Missing coverage is not the same as zero layoffs.

What to watch next

Three things will determine whether this mid-November bulge holds or softens. First, new filings: if large employers file notices with effective dates in late November or December, the tail of the window will fill in and the concentration will ease. Second, revisions: employers sometimes amend effective dates, shifting workers from one week to another. Third, the December 5 week itself: at 846 workers, it is unusually light, and one or two mid-sized filings would change its character entirely.

The clearest reading is simple. The weeks ahead are not uniformly heavy. They build through early November, peak sharply in the weeks of November 14 and November 21, ease in the week of November 28, and then drop to a very quiet week of December 5. Anyone tracking layoffs should plan around that shape, not around the six-week average.

Data source: Layoff Atlas