The Next Six Weeks of Layoffs Look Unusually Flat — and Still Heavy

There is no single terrible week coming. That is the most striking thing about the next six weeks of WARN layoff data — and it is not the same as good news.

Layoff Atlas currently shows 34,989 workers with layoffs effective over the six weeks from October 26 through November 30, 2026. The heaviest week, November 9, accounts for 6,568 of them; the lightest, November 2, for 5,061. Every other week falls between those two numbers, a gap of just 1,507 workers.

Put another way, no week in the stretch is an outlier. The average week holds about 5,832 workers, and every week sits within about 14 percent of that average — November 2 roughly 13 percent under it, November 9 roughly 13 percent over it, and the other four weeks all within about 6 percent. For a dataset built from hundreds of separate employer filings, that is a remarkably even spread.

The six weeks, week by week

Here are the figures as they stand, by effective week:

• Week of October 26: 5,503 workers
• Week of November 2: 5,061 workers
• Week of November 9: 6,568 workers
• Week of November 16: 6,145 workers
• Week of November 23: 6,120 workers
• Week of November 30: 5,592 workers

The total, 34,989, works out to roughly 833 workers per day across the six-week stretch. November 9 is the peak, but a modest one: it holds about 19 percent of the six-week total, not the kind of dominant week that would suggest a single event driving the calendar. November 16 and November 23 are close behind, at 6,145 and 6,120 workers, and the stretch ends quietly, with November 30 the second-lightest week at 5,592.

A flatter outlook than the one before it

The evenness stands out more when compared with the outlook from just a day earlier. That six-week view, covering the weeks from October 25 through November 29, totalled 35,222 workers — almost the same total — but its weeks ranged from 4,565 to 7,781 workers, a spread of 3,216, more than twice the current spread. Its heaviest week held about 70 percent more workers than its lightest week. In the current outlook, the heaviest week holds only about 30 percent more than the lightest.

Some of that change comes from the window rolling forward a day, which shifts workers between week boundaries. But the direction is clear: the sharp peak that previously sat in the middle of the outlook has smoothed out, and no new peak has replaced it.

What flat does not mean

A flat stretch is easy to misread, so three cautions matter.

First, flat is not low. Nearly 35,000 workers over six weeks is a heavy total by any measure, and a stretch with no extreme week can still strain unemployment offices, Rapid Response teams, and local job centres, because the load never lets up. A single crush week is visible and urgent. Six heavy weeks in a row are a different kind of strain: sustained rather than sudden.

Second, these are reported plans, not confirmed job losses. WARN figures describe notices employers have filed about planned layoffs and closures. Some plans change: dates move, numbers are revised, and some filings never result in the full number of job losses. The figures here should be read as the best available early signal of what employers have announced, not as a count of people who have already lost their jobs.

Third, the totals are incomplete in known ways. Layoff Atlas's current 90-day window covers 679 notices and 65,527 reported workers, with 33 notices carrying no worker count at all, so those workers are excluded from every total here. Separately, recently imported records with no published notice date, totalling 298 workers, are not assigned to any effective week above. New filings can still land in any of these six weeks, and existing effective dates can shift. The flat shape is a snapshot of what is filed today, not a final schedule.

Where the numbers sit nationally

The national picture behind the six-week stretch has barely moved. The 90-day window still shows 679 notices and 65,527 reported workers, with Washington (17,073 workers), California (14,001), Illinois (4,626), Texas (3,652), and Ohio (3,180) leading the states. Washington and California alone account for more than 31,000 workers in that window — close to half the national total. The calendar is flat; the map is not.

What to watch next

The question now is whether the flat shape holds. If new filings keep arriving at a steady pace, the six-week total will grow while the shape stays even. If a single large filing lands with an effective date inside this window, one week will jump out of line and the flat stretch will be over. Either outcome is normal: WARN filings arrive unevenly, and a calm-looking calendar can change with one notice.

For workers, the practical takeaway is the same either way. The next six weeks do not contain a single week to brace for above all others. They contain six heavy weeks, one after another, with November 9 modestly ahead of the rest. Planning — for benefits, job searches, and support services — should assume a sustained stretch, not a single bad week followed by relief.

Data source: Layoff Atlas