Short version: I made a small fan site that models your chances of finding Pirate Shop Access in Fortnite's Treasure Hunters mini-season, and tracks everything around the drop. Epic Games has not published an official drop rate, so the calculator is explicit about being a model: you set an assumed per-chest rate, your chests per match and your squad size, and it returns the chance of at least one find across the run, plus comparisons between routes. Around the calculator, the site documents the stuff players actually argue about: the best Treasure Hunt chest locations on Crossbones Isle (Rubber Resort, Lantern Landing and Loguetown lead the Week 1 counts), the two 14-day activation windows and their deadlines, which Item Shop offers are eligible, squad sharing reports, and what to do when the access banner appears but the shop does not update. Site: https://fortnite-shoptoken.xyz (unofficial fan project, not affiliated with Epic Games). Feedback on the model assumptions is welcome - especially from anyone logging real chest runs.
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