Social media is trending with the news of “The Fed is doing big rate cuts tomorrow and so, are you ready for the bull market?” But before this, we need to know that is this hype or reality?
With the Federal Reserve’s July FOMC meeting happening this week, investors, crypto traders, and economists are all watching closely. While some influencers are pushing a bullish narrative, let’s break down what’s actually expected and what it really means for markets.
What Is the FOMC and Why It Matters
The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is the policymaking body of the U.S. Federal Reserve. It meets roughly every 6 weeks to adjust interest rates and discuss economic strategy.
Rate cuts make borrowing cheaper, usually boosting stocks, crypto, and other assets. Rate hikes do the opposite. That’s why every FOMC meeting is a major event in global finance.
Are Big Rate Cuts Really Happening Tomorrow?
Despite online rumors, no major rate cut is expected tomorrow. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there's a 97% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at the current 4.25–4.50% range.
So where did the rate cut hype come from? Likely from:
- Social media speculation
- Political pressure (Trump pushing for cuts)
- Dissenting Fed governors
But still, these do not translate into immediate action.
Market Expectations vs Rumors
As of the recent date in 2025 FOMC meeting, market data shows a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady. Only a 3% chance is being priced in for a modest 25 basis point cut, while the likelihood of any major, unexpected rate cuts stands at virtually 0%. These probabilities indicate that markets are overwhelmingly aligned with a “no change” outcome, despite public speculation and political pressure.
Wall Street, crypto markets, and central banks globally are not pricing in any “big rate cuts” at this meeting.
Why the Fed Is Cautious Right Now
Reasons for caution:
- Inflation is still sticky (CPI: 2.7% YoY in June)
- Wage growth and labor markets remain tight
- Political uncertainty with trade war talks and tariffs
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly emphasized the need for “more data confidence” before cutting rates.
What Happens If the Fed Does Surprise Us?
If the Fed unexpectedly cuts:
- Equities & crypto could rally short-term
- Treasury yields would likely fall
- Gold and risk assets may surge
But this scenario is extremely unlikely unless a major economic shock is revealed last minute.
Bull Market Incoming? Not Yet
Claims like “Are you ready for the bull market?” are premature. Bull markets don’t start just because of one rate meeting but they depend on:
- Sustained rate cut cycles
- Declining inflation
- Strong corporate earnings
- Retail & institutional liquidity
As of now, none of those signals are fully aligned.
September: The Real Turning Point?
- The more realistic window for a first rate cut is September 2025.
- Current futures pricing shows:
- 65% chance of 25bps cut in September
- Possible second cut in December
If inflation drops under 2.5% and recession risks rise, the Fed might pull the trigger then.
Final Thoughts
The idea that “big rate cuts are coming tomorrow” is misleading. While the bull market narrative is emotionally exciting, smart investors should separate:
- Factual Fed guidance
- From influencer hype
Instead of chasing rumors, watch the official FOMC statement, follow Powell’s press conference, and analyze macro data before adjusting your portfolio.
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