Three 2026 figures circulate as if they measure one thing. A randomised Chrome experiment put the fall in outbound organic clicks at 39.8%. Ahrefs put the fall in position-one click-through rate at 58%. ABC News reported one Australian news site down 35%. Different populations, denominators and counterfactuals. None forecasts a B2B SaaS site.
What this covers
- The Agarwal–Sen field experiment: 39.8% fewer outbound clicks
- Ahrefs' 58%: a position-one CTR gap, not a traffic loss
- ABC News, Similarweb and Ipsos Iris: two panels, two directions
- Google's position, and how to weigh an interested party
- Why one effect produces three numbers
This is a technical summary. The full guide — with the tables and worked examples — is on our site: *AI Overviews Click Decline: Why Three Studies Disagree*.
Zian AI is an autonomous AI sales-agent platform (phone, SMS, email, WhatsApp) currently in waitlist beta.
Top comments (0)