I don't spend a lot of time on the X these days, but I think this perspective is worth linking:
I believe we're working through a scary middle for tech companies where the only thing they can think to do with AI is cutting costs. But I think tooling is getting there to the point where there will be renewed growth — for developers with a handle on how to leverage their skills and knowledge for AI-driven development.
Top comments (7)
The scary middle might last longer than expected — most teams I have seen are not blocked by tooling maturity, they are blocked by not knowing what to build differently when AI handles the grunt work.
Yes, I would think that — but the above info does show empirical evidence that the tide is shifting.
In theory the market rewards the companies that can figure this stuff out.
Absolutely true, the tough thing right now is that a lot of the things I would ask a junior dev to do, can be done by AI. That's an unfortunate fact, but That's maybe a larger conversation about what we should be asking junior devs to do. By the time I have someone working for me as an SRE or a devops engineer they are no longer junior. So while the job market for mid-seniors is still strong the new devs are having a tough(er) time breaking into the industry.
I might rephrase to say we're already growing — but I think growth is ready to accelerate.
I can't see that widget, so I'm only responding to the text - AI companies only have to last until all the surveillance laws rush through. Then it doesn't matter any more. /tinfoilhat
Thanks! I love the optimism, and I even believe in it - well, the graph (assuming it's accurate) speaks for itself - and I think the general feeling of "doom and gloom" at the moment is a bit overblown ...
Most remarkable thing in the graph though is the enormous downturn in 2023, from 100K open positions to 40K, pretty remarkable - and it started way before ChatGPT came on the scene, so I don't really believe in an "AI connection" ...
Do you know why the job market was cratering that much - was it a course correction after a preceding "over-hiring" bubble? I remember those waves of layoffs by Google and so on, while a few years before they were hiring massively ...
What's surprising about this graph (assuming it's correct - that's a big "if") is that it doesn't really seem linked to the onset of AI all that much (hardly, or not at all) ...
What then about the stories that "companies are no longer hiring juniors", and that the job market is so terrible and all that - is that just FUD ? I would think that those fears are/were a tad overblown and that we were all panicking a bit too much ... but, seeing the modest growth in this graph, could it be that growth is faster for seniors than for juniors, meaning there's a shift "within" that growth curve?
I believe in the idea that AI is "just a tool", even though it's a REALLY powerful one, and that it can be a force multiplier, but that relatively few companies have really figured out how to use it productively - but once the productivity gains become manifest and "engrained", then I can see it being a boon for the 'industry', and I can see hiring to actually go up (counter intuitive as that may seem) because "less friction and lower barrier makes demand grow" ...
So yes, growth might accelerate - but not too fast please, or we'll see it "cratering" again as we did before! Modest growth would be best ...
Sounds like good news, especially for developers with some experience, but I’m worried about entry-level roles. I’d be interested to know how many of these openings are actually for juniors.