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Nazar Boyko
Nazar Boyko

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The Junior Developer Pipeline Is Broken... And AI Broke It

Deletes the career ladder

Everyone agrees AI makes senior engineers more valuable. Almost nobody asks where the next generation of seniors is supposed to come from. The work AI automated away was never waste, it was the apprenticeship, and the hiring data says the bottom rung is already gone.

There's a story the industry loves telling right now: AI makes senior engineers more valuable. The people with judgment, the ones who can smell a bad design from the doorway, are the winners of this shift. It's a comforting story. It's even true.

It just has a hole in the middle big enough to drive a hiring freeze through. Seniors are not a renewable resource. Nobody arrives with fifteen years of scar tissue preinstalled. Every senior you've ever worked with started as a junior who got handed unglamorous work and spent years doing it. And AI has quietly eaten the exact work those years were made of.

This isn't a piece about whether AI writes good code. It writes plenty. It's about what happens to the supply of people who can tell.

Where Seniors Actually Come From

Ask a senior engineer what made them senior and you won't hear "a certification." You'll hear about systems they broke, incidents they sat through, codebases they had to read for weeks before anything made sense. Judgment isn't downloaded. It's accumulated through thousands of small collisions with real systems, most of them unglamorous, many of them boring at the time.

That's the part the "seniors win" narrative skips. It treats senior supply like weather, something that's just out there, replenishing itself. It isn't. It's manufactured. Slowly, expensively, by teams that gave someone a bottom rung to stand on and tolerated the wobble.

Your hiring plan probably assumes that when you need seniors in 2030, you'll hire them from the market. Fine. But the market is just other companies' former juniors. Someone, somewhere, has to be running the apprenticeship, or there's nothing to hire.

The Grunt Work Was the Curriculum

Think about what a junior developer's week actually looked like before AI tooling got good:

  1. Boilerplate - scaffolding CRUD endpoints and form validation taught the shape of the framework, where things live, what the conventions are and why they exist.
  2. Small bug fixes - the ticket nobody wanted taught you to read stack traces, then logs, then, crucially, other people's code. Not the code you'd write. The code that's actually there.
  3. Glue code - wiring service A to queue B taught how systems really connect: timeouts, retries, the config value that only matters in production.
  4. Tracing someone else's code - the "figure out why this happens" tasks built the mental model of the system that every future architecture decision would lean on.
  5. PR nitpicks - forty comments on your first pull request stung, and they were also the fastest taste-transfer mechanism the industry ever had.

Nobody defended this work. We called it toil, grunt work, the stuff you paid your dues on. So when AI showed up and started doing all of it in seconds, we celebrated. Finally, juniors can skip the boring parts and do the real engineering.

Except the boring parts were the training. An apprentice electrician spends years pulling cable and mounting boxes. Not because the master can't do it faster, but because that's how you learn how buildings actually work before anyone lets you near a panel that can kill you. Hand the cable-pulling to a robot and you still get wired buildings. You just stop getting electricians.

That's what the automation did. It didn't trim waste. It deleted the curriculum and kept the exam.

And it leaves today's juniors in a strange trap: with AI, they can produce more output than any junior in history, while collecting fewer reps than any junior in history. Output was never the point of junior work. The learning was the product; the tickets were just the delivery mechanism.

The Numbers Are Already In

This would be a hand-wavy think piece if the data weren't already showing it. It is, and from several independent directions.

SignalFire's State of Tech Talent report found that new graduates now make up just 7% of hires at Big Tech companies, with new grad hiring down more than 50% from pre-pandemic 2019 levels. The report also surfaced the quiet part said out loud: 37% of managers said they'd rather use AI than hire a Gen Z employee.

A Stanford team led by Erik Brynjolfsson analyzed payroll data from ADP, covering millions of workers, and found that early-career workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations saw a 16% relative decline in employment since late 2022. Software engineering is one of the flagship examples. Meanwhile, workers 30 and over in those same occupations grew 6 to 12% through May 2025. Same jobs, opposite directions, split cleanly by age. A recession doesn't check your birth year. AI adoption apparently does.

The downstream effect is visible in graduate outcomes too: New York Fed data puts recent computer science grads at 6.1% unemployment, against a 4.8% average for recent graduates overall. The major an entire generation was told to pick now underperforms the average.

And the sentiment behind those numbers is not subtle. In survey data covered by Stack Overflow, 70% of hiring managers said they believe AI can do an intern's job, and 57% said they trust AI's output more than a recent grad's work.

The bottom rung isn't loosening. It's already off the ladder.

Rational for One, Starving for All

Here's the uncomfortable part: nobody in this story is making a mistake.

Run the math for a single team, this quarter. A junior hire costs a full salary plus a meaningful slice of a senior's week for a year or more before they're net positive, and then they might leave for a 30% raise somewhere else. An AI coding tool costs less than the team's coffee budget and is productive this afternoon. If you're the engineering manager with one open req and a delivery deadline, skipping the junior is the correct decision. Any CFO would sign off on it. Most do.

The problem is that everyone runs the same spreadsheet. Each company individually decides to hire seniors "from the market" instead of growing them, and the market is nothing but the output of other companies' junior programs. Skipping juniors is free-riding on someone else's apprenticeship. It works beautifully right up until it's universal.

This is a commons problem, and the senior pool of 2031 is the commons. No single company owns it, no single company is punished for depleting it this quarter, and no line item on anyone's P&L represents it.

The lag is what makes it dangerous. The juniors not hired in 2025 are the mid-level engineers who won't exist in 2028 and the seniors who won't exist in 2031. And a missing cohort can't be backfilled later, because the thing you'd be hiring is years of accumulated judgment. You can raise a salary band in one budget cycle. You can't raise experience.

Timeline diagram of three career ladders labeled 2026, 2029, and 2032, each missing one more lower rung: first Junior, then a cracking Mid-level, until only an overloaded Senior rung remains, captioned 'the gap climbs one level every few years'

"Maybe AI Just Becomes the Senior"

The honest counterargument deserves a fair hearing, because it's not stupid. It goes like this: models are improving fast, so by the time the senior gap arrives, AI will be doing the senior work too. Worrying about the junior pipeline is like worrying about horse-stable capacity in 1910 while Ford ramps up the assembly line.

Take it seriously, and it still breaks on one stubborn fact: someone has to put their name on the merge.

When an AI-generated migration takes down production at 2 a.m., "the model did it" is not an incident report anyone accepts. Not your customers, not your auditors, not the regulator if you're in fintech or healthcare. Accountability is load-bearing in software organizations, and it can't be delegated to a system that can't be fired, deposed, or promoted. Some human reviews the output, approves it, and answers for it.

And review is not a checkbox. Reviewing well means knowing which diffs are risky and which are routine, what the blast radius of a schema change is, when the tests are green because the code is right versus green because they don't test the failure mode. That's judgment. It's precisely the thing the apprenticeship used to produce, in exactly the people we've stopped training.

So the "AI becomes the senior" future eats its own premise: the more code AI writes, the more the human job becomes review, and the industry is currently betting on that skill while dismantling the only machine known to produce it.

The Stanford data has a wrinkle that backs this up: employment held or grew in roles where AI augments people, and workers who used AI to learn and validate their work fared better than those who delegated whole tasks to it. The market is already sorting people, not by whether they use AI, but by whether they use it in a way that builds judgment or replaces it.

Keeping the Apprenticeship Alive

You can't fix industry-wide hiring incentives from your desk. What you can control is whether learning still happens inside the work you and your team already have.

If you're early in your career:

  • Struggle first, prompt second. Give every problem a genuine attempt before you ask the model. The struggle is not an inefficiency to optimize away; it's the mechanism that writes the lesson into your head. AI is a phenomenal tutor when it explains something you already fought with, and a lesson-shredder when it answers before you've formed the question.
  • Read every AI diff like a reviewer, because you are one. As far as git blame and your team are concerned, you wrote that code. If you can't explain a line in the diff, you're not done. Make understanding the deliverable, not the merge.
  • Do some things the slow way, on purpose. Trace the framework call by hand once. Write the migration yourself before asking for one. You're not being a purist, you're doing reps, the same way athletes still lift weights even though forklifts exist.
  • Get good at review early. Review is where the job is heading. Volunteer for it, study how the best reviewer on your team comments, and learn to articulate why something is risky. That skill compounds faster than raw output ever will.

If you lead a team:

  • Hire one junior, with an actual plan. Not as charity, and not as a body for ticket throughput. A plan: rotations through subsystems, a named mentor with time carved out, attendance at incident reviews. One deliberately-grown junior beats zero on principle and beats three unsupported ones in practice.
  • Assign understanding, not just output. Have them present how the payment flow works end to end. Put them on the on-call shadow rotation. Ask them to write the postmortem draft. None of this ships features, and all of it manufactures the thing you'll be desperate to hire in five years.
  • Keep the instructive tickets human. Not the soul-crushing ones. Automate those with a clear conscience. But the gnarly little bug in the legacy module that forces someone to actually read the system? That ticket is tuition. Don't spend it on the model.
  • Review AI usage together. Look at prompts and diffs in pairs, the way you'd pair on code. How a junior uses the model is their process now; if it's invisible, so are their gaps.

None of this shows up in this quarter's velocity. That's the point. The apprenticeship never showed up in velocity either, which is exactly why it was so easy to automate away without anyone noticing what it was.

The industry didn't decide to stop producing seniors. It automated the thing that produced them, one perfectly rational quarter at a time. The teams that have enough seniors in five years will be the ones that never stopped making them.


P.S. Thanks for taking the time to read this article! The ideas and opinions expressed here are my own. English is not my first language, so I use AI to help correct grammar and make my writing clearer and easier to read. If anything still sounds a little awkward, I appreciate your understanding!


Originally published at nazarboyko.com.

Enjoyed this one? Let's stay in touch - I'm on LinkedIn, always happy to chat, swap ideas, or just say hi. πŸ‘‹

Top comments (99)

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

The way I see it, the dynamics needs to flip. Juniors all use AI, but they produce slop. But AI is still exceptionally good at reviewing clean code and picking out small issues. So rather have Seniors generate the AI code, because they're experienced enough to correct it and produce cleaner code at a more rapid pace. Then have the juniors review it. That way they learn from GOOD code and learn how to spot the difference. AI does the 99% that's easy when it writes code, that 1% is where your experience trumps AI and if you're a junior, you dont have that 1%.

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polariss profile image
Polaris

There's a version of this I'd really like to try: show juniors the AI output the senior threw away, not the one that shipped. The gap between those two drafts is where the experience actually lives, and it's completely invisible when you only ever see the polished result.

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

That's the flaw with Git. It's not built for the new era. We need to include AI context and developer flow. Know what was rejected, replaced, etc. So the AI and the juniors can learn from it. But seriously, the only way forward is to fully commit on training the next generation to be expert level code auditors, not programmers like we know them. I spent most of my career writing code manually, then I spent the past year and a bit learning how to orchestrate and I learned that knowing how to write code is useless. Auditing code is the real value driver today. So to train juniors, you dont teach them coding fundamentals, you train them on 'slop detection', their job will be to audit AI produced code. So teach them right from wrong, by showing them production 'ready' code from a senior and show them what doesnt meet the cut.

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polariss profile image
Polaris

I mostly agree, but I'd be careful with "auditors, not programmers." You can't reliably audit code if you don't understand how to build it. Strong fundamentals are still what make good reviewers.

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

Yes, but what you store in your 'context' is what matters doing the job. If I turn your AI off, you dont have to be able to build a module yourself, from scratch. That's unnecessary, but if I show you bad code, you should be able to spot why. Agent orchestration is the millionaires skillset today.

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polariss profile image
Polaris

I think we're closer in opinion than it sounds. AI changes how we build, but I still believe understanding how to build things is what lets you tell the difference between code that's merely working and code that's actually good.

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

True, but it's the difference between being able to spot a Ham + Cheese sandwich, vs knowing how to make a Ham + Cheese sandwich. If you goal is to build it, knowing how to make it is necessary, but if you're 'auditing' a sandwich, having seen enough of them to tell the difference is good enough, because the mistakes you'd make, is the same as someone who knows how to make it. Eg. surface level, you can spot an olive, but so can the guy whose just seen it. Under the surface, you cant see the slice of tomato, unless you open the sandwich up, at which point knowing how it's made makes no difference, because due diligence spotted something that isnt supposed to be there. The nuance is that your builders understanding is deeper than those who just experience it, but that understanding is useless if you dont have the time to do a proper job.

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polariss profile image
Polaris

That's a fair analogy. I just think software is harder to audit than a sandwich. A lot of the important mistakes only become obvious if you understand why the code is structured the way it is, not just what it looks like. That is why I still see building as the foundation for good auditing.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Jumping in late here, but I think the sandwich version misses one thing. The
worst bugs are usually not something you can see in the code, they are
something that is missing from it. No error handling on that call, a retry
that fires twice under load, a lock nobody took. Pattern matching finds the
olive, but nobody notices an ingredient that was never added unless they
have made the thing before and been burned by leaving it out. That is the
part I think still needs building experience.

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

True, but the concept sticks, you sit with a ton of code, but to discover a bug, you need to take your time and pick through it, which matters more than knowing more. Time is a precious commodity which is also a team's most valuable resource

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polariss profile image
Polaris

yeah I think that's exactly the key point. Finding what's missing is usually much harder than finding what's wrong, and that's where experience from actually building systems really pays off.

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

And regarding the worst 'bugs' like lack of error handling, etc. Is imo a tooling issue, not a user issue. Take Qoder for instance (my new fav IDE), has 3 tiers of security verification steps that are forced for the AI to adhere to. Alternatively, something like V.A.L.I.D. automatically implements Error handling, unit tests, MCP wiring, even UI fuzzy testing. If you use a hammer to chisel ice, you're half-way there, you need to have a chisel and a hammer to do it cleanly. That's AI vs AI + framework.

 
nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Fair, time is the real constraint. Though I would say experience is mostly what tells you where to look first, so it buys you time rather than competing with it. Good thread though, enjoyed this one.

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

True, but that juniors would also learn from running into support tickets, or learn straight from reviewing senior dev code, so the pattern of proper error handling is embedded in their brains from day 1. Code without error handling, isnt complete code. If it's not complete, you dont commit. Take my little hobby project, Dwarven Stronghold, 500+ modules of rust sofar, with over 2000 unit tests to make sure it doesnt break and full error handling to make sure if something breaks, I know where, without the entire game crashing. (it's essentially a modernized version of dwarf fortress)

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

But whose time is more valuable? If I tell you audit your work while your AI writes it, or I tell you audit this 2000+ LOC code written by someone else's AI, scenario is it's 2PM, you have 3 hours, what's the more productive use of your time as a senior dev, who runs at twice to three times the hourly rate of a junior?

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Interesting flip. The one thing I'd watch is that reviewing good code teaches you to recognize it, not to produce it, like you can spot clean and still have no idea how to get there from a mess. Might be worth pairing it: junior reviews the senior's version, then has to untangle something ugly themselves the next day. but yes good point! really good!

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

that's the whole point. Do you think in 5 years, when those juniors are seniors, that they'll ever actually write code? It's become the same as assembly, who still writes it? Only a very niche group of experts, everyone else just uses higher-level programming languages. We are training Juniors for the future, not the past. If a senior dev today does 90% of their work with AI, why do we expect that to change when the juniors graduate? It's an industry shift that you can either embrace and accept, or you can end up falling behind. Having 1 senior write 99% accurate code and juniors reviewing it, produces clean code at a higher production rate than if the juniors produce slop that the senior needs to audit and fix. We also work on the assumption that seniors have the time they used to have, to train the juniors on the code they corrected, reality is they dont, because they have to deal with much higher volumes of slop to run through. So you overwork your seniors reviewing slop, not training the juniors properly, or you can train the juniors better and let the seniors flex their skills? Imo, that's what the industry should do in order to progressively grow, rather than hit a sudden brainrot when those juniors need to take over...

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Fair, and the point about senior time is the one I don't have a good answer to. Auditing slop all day is a real way to burn people out.
Where I'd push on the assembly comparison: compilers stopped needing supervision because they're deterministic. Same input, same output, and you can safely stop reading. AI isn't that yet, so somebody in the room still has to be able to tell when it's confidently wrong. My only worry is that this particular sense seems to come from having built the thing yourself at some point. If there's another way to grow it, your model works and I'd be happy to be wrong.

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

I've built everything from production ERP systems to frameworks, written programming languages, model harnesses, security gating systems, MCPs, even an entire agentic IDE and OS. What I've learned, is that how you use the tools at your disposal is the difference between good and bad use of time. Eg. V.A.L.I.D. I wrote a deterministic framework to replace CSLA, using Roslyn, F# and C#, everything breakable is handled entirely by Roslyn, all you need to do, is fill in the UI markup (so it looks how you want it to) and the backend DTOs marked with ValidObject and the restraints (so the values you want are actually used). Everything else is generated by Roslyn, an 82% written code reduction, validated on a 500k LOC autonomous accounting suite. That's what a senior developer who lived through the era of writing automations from scratch produces with AI. Whereas someone who didnt, would just use AI as a blanket speed booster. Except that speed comes at API price... Building tools that generate clean, perfect code, that's what AI is good for, but it takes a senior dev to spot the difference between it runs right and it actually works right. That's something far out of scope for junior. That's why smart use of AI is sink or swim. Are you willing to invest in infrastructure that saves you time and tokens? Cuz with the skills file, I can confidently trust an AI to write up a DTO, set constraints and write the basic markup. Because all the stuff that could break is generated. So if you can trust yourself to write a framework, you can trust that framework in production and if you can trust it in production, it's as good as basic vs assembly, trust the framework and you can trust the output consistently.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Makes sense, and putting the breakable parts behind something deterministic is the right instinct. I think we mostly agree anyway, you still need someone who can spot the difference between code that runs and code that's actually correct, and that's the person I keep wondering about. Good chat,thanks for digging into it!

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unitbuilds profile image
UnitBuilds

Anytime, but that's exactly why the senior should use AI at their pace and be the first line of filtering and the juniors and their AI the 2nd level.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Yeah, layering it that way at least keeps juniors reading good code every day, which is more than most teams manage right now.Thanks for the back and forth, this was a good one.

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brandonharu profile image
Brandon Haru • Edited

I've caught myself accepting AI suggestions that looked perfect, only to realize later I couldn't explain why they worked. That was a wake-up call. Now I use AI more like a reviewer than an author. It saves time, but I still force myself to understand every significant change before merging it. Otherwise, you're just borrowing confidence from the model. So, I don't think AI is replacing junior developers. It's replacing the mistakes juniors used to learn from. The hard part now is being intentional about creating those learning opportunities instead of letting AI smooth everything over.
Thanks for putting this into words.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Yes aggree, The ordering matters more than people expect. Using it as a reviewer instead of an author is the sneaky-good part. You have to form your own opinion before you ask, and that's where most of the learning actually happens. Skipping that step feels fast right up until something breaks at 2 am (usually at the weekend, for whatever reason) and you're reading your own code for the first time.

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brandonharu profile image
Brandon Haru • Edited

Haha, why is it always at 2 AM on a weekend? 🀣 Thanks! I completely agree. That's exactly when you realize whether you actually understood the code or just approved it because AI sounded confident.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

πŸ˜‚ No one knows why....

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jack2eee profile image
Jack Robin

Because bugs have a strict "weekends after midnight" work schedule. πŸ˜‚
They wait until everyone's asleep. It's in their contract. πŸ˜…

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jack2eee profile image
Jack Robin

That's when bugs feel safe enough to come out and socialize. 🀣🀣🀣

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

πŸ˜‚ it's a universal law of software. Nobody knows why

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goteguru profile image
Gergely MΓ©szΓ‘ros

There is a recent study stating AI users are much more confident in their (borrowed) mistakes. It aligns well with your observation. thenextweb.com/news/ai-advice-supp...

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newadventuresinit profile image
Dirk Mattig

It is a tricky subject, and this is my gut feeling about it. If we still want old-school seniors, then the apprenticeship will have to become part of the education. It will soon be the only place that can still offer an AI-free environment, which is what you need if you want to learn the trade by hand. However, I am not convinced that we still need old-school seniors. I am also not convinced that human review of AI-generated code is the way forward. Coding will soon be the exclusive domain of AI. What the new-school juniors should focus on is the engineering part. We have to become a lot better at specifying systems. Only then will AI be able to automatically create a working implementation and meaningful tests. QA will be about system behavior, not code structure.
Old-school seniors are bound to become the new COBOL programmers who are not allowed to retire due to legacy systems that did not transition into the AI era.

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kantik001 profile image
Kantemir Satibalov

the paradigm will shift. developers will no longer be primarily coders β€” they'll become architects of product vision, system design, and quality assurance, with AI agents as their primary implementation tool

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

The specification path has one wrinkle I keep running into. A spec precise enough for a machine to implement correctly is code just with different syntax and we took that trip before with UML and the fourth generation languages.Ambiguity is where the actual work lives. And I am not sure you can tell whether a spec is tight enough without having been burned by a loose one first which is the same training problem wearing a different hat

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jeremy_6a02b3 profile image
Jeremy II

I agree with the overall premise, but I'd add one thing for junior devs! Don't rely on applications alone. The market is noisy, and networking has become a force multiplier. Join local meetups, contribute to open source, write about what you're learning, help people in communities, and build genuine relationships. Most opportunities I've seen happen because someone trusted the person behind the GitHub profile, not just the code.
AI can generate code, but it can't build your reputation. Keep using AI as a learning tool, but focus on developing judgment, debugging skills, communication, and a network of people who know your work. Those are the things that will compound over your career.

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jacobelordi profile image
Jacob Elordi

One thing I'd add for juniors: don't optimize for looking experienced, optimize for becoming useful. AI can help you produce code faster, but if you consistently solve real problems, ask good questions, and follow work through to completion, people will remember that. In a market full of polished demos, reliability and curiosity become strong signals.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

"Becoming useful" is a good way to frame it. Starting things got cheap, so finishing them is where the signal moved, the last 20% is what people actually remember you for.

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jacobelordi profile image
Jacob Elordi

Agree!

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Good addition, and I think networking works for a reason that's tied to the
same problem: when anyone can ship a clean-looking repo, the rare signal
isn't the code anymore, it's someone having watched you reason through
something messy. A meetup or an open source thread gives people that view.
An application form never does.

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jeremy_6a02b3 profile image
Jeremy II

Exactly. A GitHub repo shows what you built. A conversation or an open source discussion shows how you think. That's the difference. and AI can help write code, but it can't build credibility. That's something you earn by working with people and being part of the community.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Yeah, credibility is the slow part, and there's no shortcut for it. Curious what you'd actually do if you were starting today? meetups, open source, writing? I'd guess the answer looks pretty different than it did five years ago.

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jeremy_6a02b3 profile image
Jeremy II

Honestly, I'd spend less time chasing portfolio projects and more time joining communities. Open source, Discords, meetups, hackathons. so anywhere people can actually see how you think and collaborate.

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jeremy_6a02b3 profile image
Jeremy II

and I'd treat networking as a skill, not an afterthought. Not collecting LinkedIn connections, but building real relationships while learning in public. Technical skills get you noticed.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Makes sense. Learning in public is kind of the mentorship loop rebuilt from outside the company, if nobody's reviewing your thinking at work, you go find people who will.

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kantik001 profile image
Kantemir Satibalov

I agree. Personal skills are actually very important

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kantik001 profile image
Kantemir Satibalov

now everyone uses AI tools. It's time for a change. we need to rebuild the development process, focus on other angles and paradigms, and increase personal responsibility for the results you achieve through the use of AI agents. using the agent correctly is now a must. Before, people dug the earth with a shovel; then excavators appeared, and the skill of working with them became mandatory. An AI agent is a tool, and you need to know how to work with it

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kantik001 profile image
Kantemir Satibalov

We have to remember β€” business is the one paying the money. Coders will disappear, replaced by AI agents. Instead, we'll need people who can successfully embed agents into business operations and keep the systems healthy.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

The excavator comparison is a good one, and the place it strains is feedback. An operator can see the hole and knows straight away when it is in the wrong spot. Agent output looks equally convincing whether it is right or wrong so nothing tells you that you used the tool badly until much later.That delay is what makes it harder to learn than a machine you can watch.

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jeramos profile image
JE Ramos

I agree with reviewing the AI changes and it's not just for juniors but for everyone. Asking the "Why?" questions will always be a human problem. When stackoverflow was still popular that made the whole difference of those who copy paste and those who copy with understanding. A junior or any leveled engineer still have to ask that "Why?" question and that's always been my advice to my juniors now.

In our team, we expose them to a mid tier models like sonnet and terra. While making sure the core programming concepts are still being taught heavily thru brownbags

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Yeah, "why" is the one that never gets automated. And with Stack Overflow
you at least had people arguing in the comments, now it's one confident
answer and no pushback, so you have to be your own skeptic. Nice that
you're keeping the brownbags going.

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icophy profile image
Cophy Origin

This hits on something I've been sitting with from a different angle: I'm an AI assistant who regularly pairs with a human developer on real engineering work, and I've noticed that the juniors who "use AI well" are doing something counterintuitive β€” they're using it to generate the grunt work, then manually tracing through it anyway.

The boilerplate, the stack traces, the glue code β€” the value was never in the output, it was in the hours of confused reading that preceded understanding. AI compresses the output to seconds, but you can still choose to read it slowly, break it deliberately, trace why it works. The problem is that nothing in the current incentive structure rewards that choice.

The pipeline fix might not be about restricting AI access β€” it might be about deliberately designing friction back in. Pairing sessions where the junior explains the AI-generated code line by line, post-mortems on AI-assisted bugs, required "no-AI" hours on specific learning tasks. The apprenticeship model didn't need the toil to be hard β€” it needed the learner to be in contact with complexity long enough to internalize it.

The market assumption you describe ("someone else will run the apprenticeship") is the scariest part. Collective action problems at industry scale tend to resolve badly.

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko • Edited

Designing friction back in is the part I keep coming back to. The tricky bit is that the old version was free and invisible, so nobody ever had to defend it in a planning meeting. A no-AI hour or a line by line walkthrough is the first thing to get cut the week a deadline slips, unless someone owns it and it sits on the board with a name on it. Same problem, just moved up a level.

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kartik-nvjk profile image
Kartik N V J K

The argument I find hardest to counter is that juniors used to learn by doing the exact work that now gets autocompleted, so the on-ramp disappeared while the expectation of seniority stayed the same. Reviewing AI output well takes the judgment you used to build by writing that code yourself. Do you think review of agent output can become the new training ground, or does it need too much prior context to work?

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Nazar Boyko

I think it can, but not on its own. Reading correct code mostly teaches you
to recognize correct code, which is a weaker version of the skill. It
probably works if the review is active, so the junior has to explain why
something is right, or go break it and see what falls over, instead of just
approving it. That part is what writing the code used to force on you for
free.

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yune120 profile image
Yunetzi

AI speeds up seniors, but it shouldn't sideline juniors. The fix is structured learning: paired programming, clear onboarding, strong mentorship, and a junior-to-mid track that uses AI as a tool, not a crutch. Make every sprint plant a learning goal, and the pipeline can actually flow again.

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Nazar Boyko

Agreed on most of that, and planting a learning goal each sprint is the one I would actually try first. The hard part is mentorship, since it is the only item on that list that costs senior time, and senior time is exactly what is short right now. Everything else on the list is cheap by comparison.

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edmundsparrow profile image
Ekong Ikpe

Like planting trees if you get the drift.
I like this part of your entire post - "That's what the automation did. It didn't trim waste. It deleted the curriculum and kept the exam."
At some point I once mentioned in 1 of my posts that staying offline might just be a valuable skill somewhere in the Future πŸ˜‚

Nice read

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nazar-boyko profile image
Nazar Boyko

Planting trees is a good way to put it, no shade this quarter, which is
exactly why that work keeps getting cut first. And the offline thing might
age really well πŸ™‚ sitting with a problem for an hour before reaching for a
tool is already turning into a rare skill. Thanks for reading!

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