Source Code for Data Scraping: https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper
This article is a continuation of my analysis of the scalping market.
- Zen 3
- Ampere/RTX 30 Series
- Big Navi
- Xbox Series S/X
- PS5
Highlights:
- 49,580 Ampere GPUs sold on eBay/StockX
- $61.5 million in sales on eBay/StockX for ~$15.2 million in profit for scalpers and $6.8 million for eBay/PayPal/StockX
- Sale prices increased 6-25% due to the tariffs, except for the 3090 which its scalped price was unaffected
- RTX 20, RTX 16, GTX 1000, and GTX 900 series cards all increased 33-100% in price since the launch of Ampere
Methodology:
As this gets asked a fair amount on how I avoid fake listings:
- This analysis is only for sold listings.
- I scanned the listings for the words image, picture, mpeg, paper, "Box only", "read description", which are indicators they're fake.
- Anything below MSRP I tossed out.
- Anything for a suspicious account, less than 10 feedback I manually checked.
- I looked at all the lowest 100 or so listing to validate. * I've been doing this every few days for the past few months. Did I get every single listing? Surely not, but I'm very confident I got the vast majority.
Checking in on the RTX 30 series and Big Navi, the only thing I can say about my previous commentary is that I was wrong. I had predicted the launch of the 3060 Ti would bring pricing down, and that was very wrong. This is in no small part due to the new tariffs on graphics cards which hiked prices by 7-25%, and scalpers… hiked their prices just as much. The 3060 went from 160% launch price 1/1/21 to now 210% launch price and has recently fallen down to 190% of launch price. The 3080 is a similar story, from 170% at Christmas to now 200%. The 3070 has grown more modestly to “only” 170%, though the 3090 seems unaffected. I suspect its price is already so high that those who felt a need to buy it have already bought and now only those who want to buy are buying and can wait for semi-normal price.
For the prices below, I have left the break evens as they were from before the tariff increase to show how much prices have changed and the scalper profits using the old MSRP as I suspect most sales are from cards purchased before the increase.
| GPU Graph | MSRP | Total Sold | Median Price | Past Week Median Price | Casual Scalper Break Even | Sophisticated Scalper Break Even | Total Sales | Estimated Scalper Profits | Estimated eBay/PayPal Profits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX 3060 Ti | $399 | 5539 | $667 | $800 | $498 | $406 | $3,839,423 | $974,121 | $434,582 |
| RTX 3070 | $499 | 11684 | $809 | $867 | $623 | $507 | $9,532,680 | $2,092,119 | $1,077,600 |
| RTX 3080 | $699 | 14066 | $1300 | $1449 | $869 | $711 | $19,246,356 | $6,313,471 | $2,233,617 |
| RTX 3090 | $1499 | 7775 | $2159 | $2109 | $1849 | $1523 | $17,426,583 | $2,914,143 | $1,973,795 |
| Total | N/A | 39064 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | $50,045,042 | $12,293,854 | $5,719,594 |
Comparing eBay to StockX for Ampere, while the volume on StockX is smaller, it is not insignificant. Over $11.5 million in sales, $2.8 million in scalper profits, over 10,000 sold across the three cards, scalpers are reaping in the profits all over.
| CPU | Total Sold | Average Sales Price | Last Week Average Price | Total Sales Volume | Estimated StockX Profits | Estimated Scalper Profits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3060 Ti | 1955 | $637 | $735 | $1,256,499 | $113,085 | $325,674 |
| 3070 | 3697 | $794 | $812 | $2,885,006 | $259,650 | $694,002 |
| 3080 | 3473 | $1,302 | $1,318 | $4,408,229 | $396,740 | $1,451,614 |
| 3090 | 1491 | $2,008 | $1,921 | $2,987,600 | $268,884 | $394,079 |
| Total | 10616 | N/A | N/A | $11,537,334 | $1,038,360 | $2,865,370 |
- 3060 Cumulative Sales/Profits
- 3070 Cumulative Sales/Profits
- 3080 Cumulative Sales/Profits
- 3090 Cumulative Sales/Profits
Looking into the cumulative sales and profits over time, in the case of all four RTX 30 series, there was a sudden surge in sales between Christmas and shortly after the new year. 3090s seem to have surged before the new year, Christmas sales I imagine, but the other three cards had a run on sales once the tariffs were announced, briefly doubling or even tripling the normal sales volume for any given day.
When it comes to the sellers of the RTX 30 series, there are far more no-store sellers vs store sellers compared to Zen 3, despite a ~5x difference in sales volume between the two. Further for those sellers selling 5 or more GPUs, it only makes up a quarter of the sellers, while 61% sold 5 or fewer, with 22% selling just one and just over a third selling 1 or 2. It seems many more individuals were lucky to get their hands on an RTX 30 series and turned to eBay to make a quick buck than Zen 3.
In terms of feedback, at least 4% of listing are scams with zero feedback, but the curve followers a normal curve as to be expected, with the 100-499 range being the most common with 31% of sellers.
| AIB | AIB Total # Sold | AIB Total Sales | 3060 Average Price | 3060 Total Sold | 3060 Total Sales | 3070 Average Price | 3070 Total Sold | 3070 Total Sales | 3080 Average Price | 3080 Total Sold | 3080 Total Sales | 3090 Average Price | 3090 Total Sold | 3090 Total Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FOUNDER | 9800 | $13,406,829 | $682 | 1426 | $972,931 | $824 | 3046 | $2,508,472 | $1,442 | 2413 | $3,479,836 | $2,211 | 2915 | $6,445,590 |
| EVGA | 6867 | $8,791,818 | $704 | 497 | $349,838 | $813 | 1536 | $1,248,461 | $1,287 | 3805 | $4,897,758 | $2,231 | 1029 | $2,295,761 |
| ASUS | 5746 | $7,793,521 | $724 | 766 | $554,722 | $843 | 1823 | $1,536,588 | $1,399 | 1870 | $2,616,654 | $2,397 | 1287 | $3,085,557 |
| MSI | 5826 | $6,509,853 | $689 | 812 | $559,452 | $813 | 2131 | $1,733,270 | $1,264 | 2197 | $2,777,162 | $2,099 | 686 | $1,439,969 |
| GIGABYTE | 4780 | $5,289,832 | $692 | 1045 | $723,600 | $812 | 1616 | $1,312,354 | $1,322 | 1575 | $2,082,402 | $2,153 | 544 | $1,171,477 |
| ZOTAC | 3205 | $3,612,846 | $671 | 486 | $325,941 | $766 | 886 | $678,313 | $1,200 | 1290 | $1,548,581 | $1,952 | 543 | $1,060,012 |
| PNY | 917 | $1,153,876 | $745 | 24 | $17,879 | $772 | 347 | $267,881 | $1,276 | 322 | $410,936 | $2,041 | 224 | $457,180 |
A natural question when it comes to the RTX 30 series is does AIB reseller have any impact on the price someone is willing to buy from a scalper? In terms of sheer sales volume, the Founder series has 9800 sales, with EVGA coming second with 6867 , then MSI with 5826. Despite that it appears ASUS is consistently priced higher than others, often by 20% for periods, while ZOTAC and PNY are the lowest priced by on average closer to 15%. This could just be an indication that ZOTAC and PNY don’t sell as many high-end cards or a lack of trust in the brand.
- Turing (RTX 16) Series Median Pricing
- Pascal (GTX 10) Series Median Pricing
- Maxwell (GTX 900) Series Median Pricing
- Maxwell/Kepler (GTX 700) Series Median Pricing
- Kepler (GTX 600) Series Median Pricing
- Fermi (GTX 500) Series Median Pricing
Finally, what impact did the release of the RTX 30 series have on previous generations of NVIDIA graphics cards? For Pascal cards, initially they stayed stable, but the new tariffs have increased the resale prices of all GTX 10 series cards, by about 50% for most of the cards. Turing’s RTX 20 series is also affected though again to a lesser extent, mostly impacting the lower end cards, the 2060s and 2060 Supers. However, the real rise in pricing was for the Turing RTX 16 series cards, all of them going up 50-60% in price since the launch of Ampere. It doesn't stop with those either, even the GTX 900 series have seen price nearly double for a few cards, though still well below their initial MSRP.
Detailed Sales Plots
| RTX 200 Series | RTX 16 Series | GTX 10 Series | GTX 900 Series | GTX 700 Series | GTX 600 Series | GTX 500 Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2080 Ti | 1660 Ti | Titan XP | Titan X | Titan Z | 690 | 590 |
| 2080 Super | 1660 Super | 1080 Ti | 980 Ti | Titan Black | 680 | 580 |
| 2080 | 1660 | 1080 | 980 | 780 Ti | 670 | 570 |
| 2070 Super | 1650 Super | 1070 Ti | 970 | 780 | 660 Ti | 560 |
| 2070 | 1650 | 1070 | 960 | 770 | 660 | 550 Ti |
| 2060 Super | 1060 | 950 | 760 | 650 Ti | 545 | |
| 2060 | 750 Ti | 650 | 530 | |||
| 750 | 640 | 520 | ||||
| 740 | 630 | |||||
| 730 | 610 | |||||
| 720 | 605 | |||||
| 710 |
Cumulative Profit/Sales Plots
| RTX 200 Series | RTX 16 Series | GTX 10 Series | GTX 900 Series | GTX 700 Series | GTX 600 Series | GTX 500 Series |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2080 Ti | 1660 Ti | Titan XP | Titan X | Titan Z | 690 | 590 |
| 2080 Super | 1660 Super | 1080 Ti | 980 Ti | Titan Black | 680 | 580 |
| 2080 | 1660 | 1080 | 980 | 780 Ti | 670 | 570 |
| 2070 Super | 1650 Super | 1070 Ti | 970 | 780 | 660 Ti | 560 |
| 2070 | 1650 | 1070 | 960 | 770 | 660 | 550 Ti |
| 2060 Super | 1060 | 950 | 760 | 650 Ti | 545 | |
| 2060 | 750 Ti | 650 | 530 | |||
| 750 | 640 | 520 | ||||
| 740 | 630 | |||||
| 730 | 610 | |||||
| 720 | 605 | |||||
| 710 |
Top comments (25)
You have performed a comprehensive task in gathering and displaying data regarding the present market conditions. This includes pricing patterns and supply deficiencies. Your article further explores the factors driving the current situation, such as the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and the increasing demand for graphics cards for cryptocurrency mining. The article is both informative and meticulously researched, offering a valuable overview of the current graphics card market.
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Scalping only works because there are people dumb enough to pay the ridiculously high prices. Feed the scalper dragon and get burned every time. I will not and have not ever paid one penny over MSRP. Even if I have to wait six months, I will NEVER pay any scalper a single penny. I bought two XBOX Series X consoles and an EVGA RTX3080 FTW3 Ultra and didn’t pay a penny over MSRP. So, it can be done.
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