An analysis of the $4 million Big Navi/RDNA2 Scalping Market

#python #datascience #analytics

Source Code for Data Scraping: https://github.com/driscoll42/ebayScraper

This article is a continuation of my analysis of the scalping market.

Highlights:

3,461 RDNA2 GPUs sold on eBay/StockX
$3.95 million in sales on eBay/StockX for ~$944k in profit for scalpers and $615k for eBay/PayPal/StockX
6800 XT price increased 17% since 1/1 while 6900 and 6800 only increased 7%
RX 5000 and Vega cards have increased 33% or more since 1/1

Methodology:
As this gets asked a fair amount on how I avoid fake listings:

This analysis is only for sold listings.
I scanned the listings for the words image, picture, mpeg, paper, "Box only", "read description", which are indicators they're fake.
Anything below MSRP I tossed out.
Anything for a suspicious account, less than 10 feedback I manually checked.
I looked at all the lowest 100 or so listing to validate. * I've been doing this every few days for the past few months. Did I get every single listing? Surely not, but I'm very confident I got the vast majority.

For better or worse, Big Navi must be compared in relation to the RTX 30 series. This is quite evident just in the sales volume, just 7% of the RTX 30 series. Further while prices have been increasing for Big Navi since the new year, it is not nearly as dramatic as the RTX 30 series, a clear indication of just lower demand. Not to say there is no demand, on 1/10/21 Newegg dropped 157 RX 6900s and they sold out within an hour, causing a significant drop in the median price for the day. But we can see a clear trend of the 6800 XT going from a low around 170% MSRP to currently just above 200%, while the base 6800 and 6900 share nearly identical overpricing percentages.

For the prices below, I have left the break evens as they were from before the tariff increase to show how much prices have changed and the scalper profits using the old MSRP as I suspect most sales are from cards purchased before the increase.

Median Pricing in Dollars

GPU Graph	MSRP	Total Sold	Median Price	Past Week Median Price	Casual Scalper Break Even	Sophisticated Scalper Break Even	Total Sales	Estimated Scalper Profits	Estimated eBay/PayPal Profits
RX 6800	$399	1169	$865	$909	$720	$589	$1,035,858	$185,978	$300,746
RX 6800 XT	$499	1135	$1,229	$1,320	$807	$660	$1,394,076	$440,234	$151,922
RX 6900 XT	$699	722	$1,460	$1,549	$1,234	$1,015	$1,072,000	$172,569	$122,496
Total	N/A	3026	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	$3,501,934	$798,781	$575,164

Comparing eBay to StockX for Big Navi, scalpers are far less likely to use StockX. StockX sold 14% as many Big Navi GPUs vs 27% as many Ampere GPUs. The total volume of sales is below half a million, though the profits are nothing to scoff at.

CPU	Total Sold	Average Sales Price	Last Week Average Price	Total Sales Volume	Estimated StockX Profits	Estimated Scalper Profits
RX 6800	128	$830	$898	$105,810	$9,523	$36,929
RX 6800 XT	239	$1,036	$1,249	$248,346	$22,351	$88,245
RX 6900 XT	68	$1,377	$1,453	$94,716	$8,524	$31,827
Total	435	N/A	N/A	$448,872	$40,398	$157,001

The cumulative sales charts mostly show a fairly linear profitability curve for the scalpers, not a very steep slope, but still a hundreds of thousands of dollars. Of interest are the clear examples when Newegg lists 100+ units for sale and they sell out within the day, spiking the sales/profits trendline.

For the sellers, there’s a clear 3-16% fakes, of those with <10 feedback on eBay, and again the largest group being 100-499. However the ratio of stores selling vs non-stores is lower, perhaps scalpers are being more successful? But of all the listings Big Navi has the most sellers who are selling 1-2, 51% of them. Whether this is an indication of scalpers not caring as much or just the lack of listings is something I am unable to determine.

Big Navi/RDNA2 Series AIB Daily compare

AIB	AIB Total # Sold	AIB Total Sales	6800 Average Price	6800 Total Sold	6800 Total Sales	6800 XT Average Price	6800 XT Total Sold	6800 XT Total Sales	6900 XT Average Price	6900 XT Total Sold	6900 XT Total Sales
SAPPHIRE	769	$899,652	$895	305	$272,902	$1,277	316	$403,485	$1,509	148	$223,265
XFX	398	$461,609	$924	153	$141,318	$1,226	162	$198,685	$1,465	83	$121,606
ASROCK	342	$407,307	$853	103	$87,900	$1,169	69	$80,695	$1,404	170	$238,712
POWERCOLOR	250	$320,803	$876	66	$57,829	$1,293	71	$91,819	$1,515	113	$171,155
GIGABYTE	245	$246,181	$868	153	$132,741	$1,181	71	$83,850	$1,409	21	$29,590
ASUS	215	$265,015	$911	69	$62,840	$1,298	109	$141,493	$1,640	37	$60,683
MSI	120	$128,591	$851	67	$56,994	$1,194	21	$25,081	$1,454	32	$46,516

Reviewing the AIB resellers, its clear Sapphire is generally preferred, or at least is likely getting the most supply which is being resold immediately, twice as many cards as any other supplier. ASRock seems to sell the cheapest cards, always near the bottom in average price while ASUS is the most again.

Coming again to the question of last generation, perhaps not directly because of the limited supply, but the resale price of the RX 5700 XT, the RX 5700, RX 5600, RX 5600XT have all dramatically increased in price for most doubling what they were in October of November. This seems less due to the scarcity of cards and more the tariffs.

Detailed Sales Plots

Big Navi	RX 5000 & Vega	RX 500	RX 400	R7/R9 300
RX 6900 XT	Radeon VII	RX 590	RX 480	R7 350
RX 6800 XT	RX Vega 64	RX 580	RX 470	R7 360
RX 6800	RX Vega 56	RX 570	RX 460	R9 380
RX 5700 XT		RX 560		R9 380X
RX 5700		RX 550X		R9 390
RX 5600 XT		RX 550		R9 Fury
RX 5500 XT		R9 Nano		R9 Fury X
		Radeon Pro Duo

Cumulative Sales Plots

Big Navi	RX 5000 & Vega	RX 500	RX 400	R7/R9 300
RX 6900 XT	Radeon VII	RX 590	RX 480	R7 350
RX 6800 XT	RX Vega 64	RX 580	RX 470	R7 360
RX 6800	RX Vega 56	RX 570	RX 460	R9 380
RX 5700 XT		RX 560		R9 380X
RX 5700		RX 550X		R9 390
RX 5600 XT		RX 550		R9 Fury
RX 5500 XT		R9 Nano		R9 Fury X
		Radeon Pro Duo