EU Agricultural Transition 2026: How Paulownia Agroforestry Systems Can Sequester 31.8 Mt CO₂ Per Year
By Dirk Röthig | CEO, VERDANTIS Impact Capital | March 9, 2026
31.8 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalents — that is the annual net sink potential of agroforestry systems in the EU, as calculated by a current study published in Land (MDPI). And only a fraction of this potential is currently being tapped. Dirk Röthig analyses what role Paulownia-based agroforestry systems can play in the EU agricultural transition — scientifically grounded, with sterile hybrids and AI-powered monitoring.
31.8 Million Tonnes: A Potential That Remains Largely Untapped
The EU has a climate problem and a solution growing right before the eyes of every European — literally. A 2025 study in Land (MDPI) on the climate impact of European agroforestry systems has for the first time provided robust figures: in the EU27, the United Kingdom and Switzerland, 9.2 million hectares of agroforestry system areas were identified — 6 Mha of silvo-pastoral and 3.2 Mha of silvoarable systems, mainly in the Mediterranean region. These areas collectively sequester 81.7 Mt CO₂ equivalents per year — at emissions of approximately 49.9 Mt CO₂ equivalents, a net sink potential of 31.8 Mt CO₂ equivalents per year remains (Lands MDPI, 2025).
Dirk Röthig contextualises this figure: "31.8 million tonnes net — that corresponds to the annual CO₂ emissions of more than 17 million passenger cars. And that on areas that already exist, without significant new investment. This is not a theoretical model — it is current, measurable climate impact."
Crucially, however, this figure does not account for the expansion potential. Were existing EU agroforestry areas expanded by just 20 per cent, the net sink potential would rise by more than 6 Mt CO₂ equivalents per year. VERDANTIS Impact Capital positions itself precisely in this gap — as an investment platform channelling capital into this untapped potential.
The Science Behind the Transition: Global Evidence for Agroforestry
The 31.8 Mt figure for EU agroforestry systems is embedded in a broad scientific evidence base that documents the climate efficacy of agroforestry systems globally.
The global meta-analysis by Mathieu, Martin-Guay and Rivest (2025) in Global Change Biology — the most comprehensive quantitative summary of agroforestry ever conducted, evaluating 3,075 comparisons — shows: agroforestry systems improve ecosystem services and biodiversity globally by an average of +23 per cent. Vertebrate diversity: +55.5 per cent, plant species richness: +13.9 per cent, crop yields: +20.4 per cent (Mathieu, Martin-Guay and Rivest, 2025).
The systematic review by Abebaw, Yeshiwas and Feleke (2025) in Climate Resilience and Sustainability, covering 109 peer-reviewed studies from 2000 to 2024, adds: agroforestry systems increase on-farm biodiversity by 25–40 per cent, improve soil carbon content by 15 per cent over two decades and sequester 3.5–9.8 Mg CO₂ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (Abebaw, Yeshiwas and Feleke, 2025).
For Dirk Röthig, these figures are not merely scientifically interesting — they are the basis of an investment strategy: "When we know that agroforestry systems demonstrably deliver +23 per cent ecosystem services and sequester between 3.5 and 9.8 Mg CO₂ per hectare per year, then a portfolio of agroforestry investments is not a risk — it is a scientifically validated climate protection strategy with measurable returns."
Paulownia: The High-Performance Tree of the EU Agricultural Transition
Within the range of possible agroforestry tree species, Paulownia occupies a special position. Not due to promises or marketing, but due to robust scientific data.
Joshi and Pant (2026) quantified in NPRC Journal of Multidisciplinary Research the carbon sequestration of Paulownia tomentosa in Nepal's middle hills: from destructive sampling of 19 trees (15–20 years), mean carbon stocks of 149.81 tC ha⁻¹ (2014) rising to 202.01 tC ha⁻¹ (2022) were recorded — a sequestration rate of 5.87 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ (Joshi and Pant, 2026). These allometric equations are directly applicable to future carbon projects.
Ghazzawy et al. (2024) complement this in Frontiers in Environmental Science: Paulownia stands can sequester approximately one million tonnes of CO₂ on 2,400 ha (~417 t CO₂/ha). As a high-performance tree for agroforestry systems and urban environments, the genus is particularly suitable because terrestrial plants sequester an average of 1.78 t CO₂ per tonne of biomass per year — and Paulownia ranks among the highest biomass production rates of all commercially relevant tree species (Ghazzawy et al., 2024).
Jakubowski (2022) describes the range in Forests (MDPI): dry biomass yields vary from 1.5 t ha⁻¹ to 14 t ha⁻¹ in the second year of cultivation — clone-dependent, with significant differences in growth dynamics (Jakubowski, 2022). A 2025 study in Forest Ecology and Management on short-rotation plantations documents annual biomass production of 0.5 to 25.4 odt ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ over ten years (Forest Ecology and Management, 2025).
Dirk Röthig summarises: "Paulownia is not what marketing material promises — it is what science documents. With 5.87 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ sequestration (Joshi and Pant, 2026) and the potential to sequester one million tonnes of CO₂ on 2,400 ha (Ghazzawy et al., 2024), Paulownia is scientifically the most compelling choice for climate-oriented agroforestry investments in Europe."
Sterile Hybrids: Zero Germination Rate
A common misconception about Paulownia concerns its potential invasiveness. Dirk Röthig clarifies what the scientific and practical facts are — and why VERDANTIS Impact Capital uses exclusively sterile hybrids.
Dirk Röthig explains the distinction: "There are Paulownia species that can spread through seeds. That is why VERDANTIS uses exclusively sterile Paulownia hybrids — hybrids that produce no viable seeds. This biological fact is not a marketing claim but a genetically and agronomically documented reality."
In German open-field trials, the germination rate is zero per cent (paulownia-baumschule.de). VERDANTIS's AI-powered monitoring explicitly includes screening for seedlings from seed dispersal — finding in all project areas: zero. Uncontrolled spread is thus biologically excluded.
No Paulownia hybrid appears on the EU invasive alien species list. The call from the agroforestry community to place sterile Paulownia hybrids on a European Green List — as a recommended species for sustainable agroforestry systems — is scientifically long established and regulatorily long overdue. VERDANTIS Impact Capital explicitly supports this call.
Dirk Röthig emphasises: "On our VERDANTIS project sites, we have demonstrably zero uncontrolled spread — documented through AI-powered monitoring. That is the evidence base on which evidence-based regulation should be built."
The EU Agricultural Transition: CAP, Carbon Farming and National Funding Programmes
The political framework for the EU agricultural transition 2026 has improved substantially. Several factors converge to make Paulownia-based agroforestry systems more attractive as a climate policy instrument.
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 2023–2027 has anchored agroforestry systems in national strategic plans. The European Agroforestry Federation (EURAF) analysed that agroforestry systems are now integrated into eco-schemes and agri-environment measures in several member states — although funding still falls short of the potential (EURAF, 2023). In Germany, Eco-Scheme 3 (agroforestry) was tripled to 600 euros per hectare of woody features (previously 200 euros/ha).
The Federal Environment Ministry provides 100 million euros for agroforestry and hedgerows under the Natural Climate Protection Action Programme (ANK) — distributed over 2025 (EUR 20m), 2026 (EUR 40m) and 2027 (EUR 40m). The Federal Ministry of Agriculture additionally funds 36 AI collaborative projects with EUR 44 million, including projects for the digitalisation of agroforestry systems.
Dirk Röthig sees in this a favourable investment constellation: "We have scientific evidence for a net sink potential of 31.8 Mt CO₂ equivalents per year in the EU. We have a political funding framework that for the first time seriously subsidises agroforestry systems. We have Paulownia as a high-performance tree with 5.87 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ sequestration. And we have AI technology that measures this carbon with R²=0.97 precision. VERDANTIS combines these four factors into an investment strategy."
AI-Powered Monitoring: How VERDANTIS Unlocks the 31.8 Mt Gap
Dirk Röthig and VERDANTIS Impact Capital use AI-powered monitoring systems to precisely document the agroforestry potential existing in the EU and make it accessible for carbon credit markets.
The technological basis is robust: Panumonwatee et al. (2025) demonstrated in Carbon Research that Random Forest ensemble models combined with Sentinel-2 data estimate carbon sequestration in agroforestry systems with an R² value of 0.97 (Panumonwatee et al., 2025). Smithwick and Hughes (2025) developed in Sustainable Environment an AI-powered algorithm for contact-free tree diameter estimation that also achieves R²=0.97 and provides a cost-effective, smartphone-based MRV solution for carbon certification (Smithwick and Hughes, 2025).
Ruan et al. (2024) show in Nature Communications that Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (KGML) delivers 86 per cent more spatial detail on soil carbon changes than conventional approaches — forming the basis for a complete carbon accounting system (Ruan et al., 2024).
"This is not future technology," explains Dirk Röthig. "R²=0.97 is available today, with freely accessible Sentinel-2 data and open-source ML algorithms. What VERDANTIS does is translate these scientific methods into an operational system that functions on each of our project sites — from baseline to verified carbon credit."
Silvoarable Systems: Historical Evidence for the Future
Alongside pure Paulownia plantations, VERDANTIS also uses silvoarable systems — the combination of tree rows with arable crops. The scientific evidence for this approach is compelling.
A 2025 study in Scientific Reports (Nature Publishing Group) on the historical significance of silvoarable systems in northern Italy showed: historical silvoarable systems stored an average of 75.4 t C ha⁻¹ (range: 50.4–101.6 t C ha⁻¹). Restoring such systems could increase regional carbon sequestration by up to 12 per cent — comparable to afforestation of 25 per cent of existing farmland (Scientific Reports, 2025).
Dirk Röthig sees a strategic opportunity: "Silvoarable systems combine food production with carbon storage — on the same land, without land competition. Historical data from northern Italy show that this combination works. VERDANTIS integrates silvoarable elements into suitable project locations."
The VERDANTIS Portfolio: Science as Investment Foundation
Dirk Röthig leads VERDANTIS Impact Capital according to a clear principle: investment decisions are not made on the basis of expectations but on the basis of verified scientific data. The VERDANTIS portfolio reflects the evidence hierarchy.
Paulownia plantations with sterile hybrids form the core — supported by 5.87 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ sequestration (Joshi and Pant, 2026), up to 417 t CO₂/ha on suitable sites (Ghazzawy et al., 2024) and AI monitoring with R²=0.97 precision (Panumonwatee et al., 2025).
Silvoarable and silvo-pastoral systems complement the portfolio — supported by +23 per cent ecosystem services (Mathieu et al., 2025), +25–40 per cent biodiversity increase (Abebaw et al., 2025) and the EU-wide net sink potential of 31.8 Mt CO₂ equivalents (Lands MDPI, 2025).
AI-powered carbon accounting using KGML methodology (Ruan et al., 2024) and modular MRV systems (Batjes et al., 2024) ensures that every tonne of CO₂ is documented with measurement precision and made available for carbon credit markets.
"VERDANTIS is not just any agroforestry investment fund," says Dirk Röthig. "We are the fund that establishes the connection between scientific evidence and capital-market-grade climate impact. Every investment decision by Dirk Röthig and VERDANTIS is grounded in peer-reviewed research. That is our aspiration — and our competitive advantage."
EU Agricultural Transition: What Matters in 2026
The EU agricultural transition 2026 faces a fork in the road. On one side: a scientifically validated net sink potential of 31.8 Mt CO₂ equivalents in existing agroforestry systems, a political funding framework providing substantial resources for the first time, and technology (AI + Sentinel) enabling carbon accounting with R²=0.97 precision.
On the other side: regulatory uncertainties, in particular the EU Regulation on Deforestation-Free Products (EUDR), which according to analysis by van Noordwijk, Leimona and Minang (2024) misclassifies agroforestry systems as forest in 63 per cent of cases and thereby creates legal risks for agroforesters — even though agroforestry systems do exactly the opposite of deforestation (van Noordwijk, Leimona and Minang, 2024).
Dirk Röthig calls for clear differentiation: "EU regulation must distinguish between forest and agroforestry — not just in legal text, but in practical application. It must recognise the 31.8 Mt potential of existing agroforestry systems and specifically support it. And it must keep sterile Paulownia hybrids, which are demonstrably non-invasive, off any invasive species list — or better yet, place them on a Green List of recommended agroforestry species."
VERDANTIS Impact Capital is actively engaged in these political debates — with a clear foundation: scientific evidence, not lobbying.
Further Articles by Dirk Röthig
- Agroforestry 4.0: How AI Systems Are Revolutionizing Plantation Management
- CO2 Sequestration in Real Time: AI-Powered Carbon Accounting for Agroforestry Investments
- Biodiversity Through Polyculture: Why Mixed Cultivation Is the Future of Agriculture
References
Abebaw, S.E., Yeshiwas, E.M. and Feleke, T.G. (2025) 'A Systematic Review on the Role of Agroforestry Practices in Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation', Climate Resilience and Sustainability. doi: 10.1002/cli2.70018.
Batjes, N.H., Ceschia, E., Heuvelink, G.B.M., Demenois, J., Le Maire, G., Cardinael, R., Arias-Navarro, C. and van Egmond, F. et al. (2024) 'Towards a modular, multi-ecosystem MRV framework for soil organic carbon stock change assessment', Carbon Management, vol. 15, no. 1. doi: 10.1080/17583004.2024.2410812.
EURAF (European Agroforestry Federation) (2023) What is the new CAP doing for agroforestry? [Policy Brief]. Available at: https://euraf.net/2023/09/18/what-is-the-new-cap-doing-for-agroforestry/ (Accessed: 9 March 2026).
Forest Ecology and Management (2025) 'Height growth and total volume production models for short rotation Paulownia plantations'. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112725006528.
Ghazzawy, H.S., Bakr, A., Mansour, A.T. and Ashour, M. (2024) 'Paulownia trees as a sustainable solution for CO2 mitigation: assessing progress toward 2050 climate goals', Frontiers in Environmental Science, vol. 12, art. 1307840. doi: 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1307840.
Jakubowski, M. (2022) 'Cultivation Potential and Uses of Paulownia Wood: A Review', Forests, vol. 13, no. 5, p. 668. doi: 10.3390/f13050668.
Joshi, N.R. and Pant, G. (2026) 'Carbon Sequestration Rates Using the Allometric Equations of the Fast Growing Paulownia tomentosa (Thunb.) in Central Nepal', NPRC Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 65–89. doi: 10.3126/nprcjmr.v3i2.91267.
Lands MDPI (2025) 'Contribution of European Agroforestry Systems to Climate Change Mitigation: Current and Future Land Use Scenarios', Land, vol. 14, no. 11, p. 2162. doi: 10.3390/land14112162.
Mathieu, A., Martin-Guay, M.-O. and Rivest, D. (2025) 'Enhancement of Agroecosystem Multifunctionality by Agroforestry: A Global Quantitative Summary', Global Change Biology, vol. 31, no. 5. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70234.
Panumonwatee, G., Choosumrong, S., Pampasit, S. et al. (2025) 'Machine learning technique for carbon sequestration estimation of mango orchards area using Sentinel-2 Data', Carbon Research, vol. 4, p. 33. doi: 10.1007/s44246-025-00201-z.
Ruan, L. et al. (2024) 'Knowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems', Nature Communications, vol. 15, art. 357. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-43860-5.
Scientific Reports (2025) 'Data-driven scenario analysis supports the revival of historic silvoarable systems for carbon smart rural landscapes', Scientific Reports, vol. 15, art. 5097. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-18950-7.
Smithwick, E.A.H. and Hughes, D.P. (2025) 'AI-powered measurement verification and reporting system for agroforestry trees to estimate carbon sequestration potential', Sustainable Environment, vol. 12, no. 1. doi: 10.1080/27658511.2025.2607826.
van Noordwijk, M., Leimona, B. and Minang, P.A. (2024) 'The European deforestation-free trade regulation: collateral damage to agroforesters?', Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, vol. 72, p. 101505. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1877343524000927.
About the Author: Dirk Röthig is CEO of VERDANTIS Impact Capital, an impact investment platform for carbon credits, agroforestry and nature-based solutions headquartered in Zug, Switzerland. Dirk Röthig connects institutional capital with scientifically grounded Paulownia agroforestry systems — unlocking the EU's CO₂ sink potential of 31.8 Mt per year. Further information: verdantiscapital.com | LinkedIn | dirkdirk2424@gmail.com
Dirk Röthig ist CEO von VERDANTIS Impact Capital.
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