DEV Community

Cover image for Remote Work and Demographics: How Distributed Work Balances Regional Disadvantage
Dirk Röthig
Dirk Röthig

Posted on • Edited on

Remote Work and Demographics: How Distributed Work Balances Regional Disadvantage

#remotework #demographics #skillsshortage #digitalization

Remote Work and Demographics: How Distributed Work Balances Regional Disadvantage

By Dirk Röthig | CEO, VERDANTIS Impact Capital | March 11, 2026

Saxony-Anhalt will lose a quarter of its workforce by 2035. Munich charges average rents of 21 euros per square meter. Germany's demographic problem is also a geographic one: skilled workers concentrate in a few metropolitan areas while rural regions bleed out. Remote work can correct this imbalance — but only under conditions that go far beyond home office regulations. Dirk Röthig analyzes the demographic data, the economic levers, and the infrastructure prerequisites.

Tags: Remote Work, Demographics, Skills Shortage, Digitalization, Rural Areas

The Geographic Dilemma: Where the Skilled Workers Are Missing

Germany's demographic change does not affect all regions equally. The gap between shrinking and growing regions has been widening for two decades — and remote work could close it again.

The numbers are dramatic: according to the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR), the eastern German states will lose between 12 and 24 percent of their workforce by 2035 (BBSR, 2024). Saxony-Anhalt is shrinking most dramatically — from 1.04 million workers to a projected 790,000. Thuringia, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and the Saarland follow with declines of 15 to 19 percent. Meanwhile, Munich, Berlin, Hamburg, and the Rhine-Main region are growing — driven by internal migration of young skilled workers moving to cities where the jobs are.

Dirk Röthig, CEO of VERDANTIS Impact Capital, sees a double market failure in this geographic concentration: "In Munich, there are not enough apartments; in Magdeburg, there are not enough skilled workers. Remote work solves both problems simultaneously: the engineer who lives in Magdeburg works for a Munich company — at lower living costs for the employee and lower real estate costs for the employer. This is not social romanticism — it is economic rationality."

The housing cost asymmetry is enormous. In Munich, the average rent is 21.20 euros per square meter (ImmoScout24, 2025). In Magdeburg, 6.80 euros. In Cottbus, 5.90 euros. A skilled worker household with 80 square meters of living space saves approximately 13,800 euros in rent per year by moving from Munich to Magdeburg — net, tax-free. No salary increase can replicate this effect.

Remote Work After the Pandemic: The New Normal

The COVID-19 pandemic transformed remote work from an exception to the norm. But how sustainable is this transformation? Data for 2025 and 2026 shows: remote work has stabilized at a high level — well above pre-pandemic levels but below the pandemic peak.

According to the ifo Institute, an average of 24.5 percent of German employees worked at least partially from home in January 2026 — compared to 49 percent at the peak (April 2020) and 4 percent before the pandemic (ifo Institute, 2026). Stabilization at nearly one-quarter of all workers corresponds to approximately 10.8 million people. In knowledge-intensive industries, the share is significantly higher: 67 percent in IT, 52 percent in financial services, 48 percent in management consulting (ifo Institute, 2026).

Hybrid work — a combination of office and remote days — has established itself as the dominant model. 73 percent of remote-capable companies offer hybrid models, typically with two to three remote days per week (Bitkom, 2025). Fully remote companies remain a minority at 12 percent — but a growing one.

Röthig observes the trend from an investor's perspective: "The 'return to office' debate of 2023 and 2024 has proven to be a flash in the pan. Companies that fully reversed remote work are losing in the recruiting competition against those offering flexible models. The market has decided — in favor of flexibility."

Remote Work as a Demographic Balancing Mechanism

The connection between remote work and demographics is rarely made in public debate — yet it is obvious. Remote work affects the demographic imbalance through three channels:

Channel 1: Return to the Home Region

Millions of young skilled workers have migrated from rural regions and eastern German states to metropolitan areas over the past two decades — not because they love Munich or Berlin, but because that is where the qualified jobs are. Remote work decouples the workplace from the employer's location.

A study by the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) documents for the first time a measurable effect: between 2020 and 2025, a net 340,000 people returned from large cities to rural regions and small towns — a migration flow that did not exist before the pandemic (IWH, 2025). In Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, rural districts recorded positive internal migration balances for the first time since 1995 among 30- to 45-year-olds — the demographically most valuable cohort.

Dirk Röthig sees a turning point: "For the first time since reunification, young families are returning to eastern German regions — not out of nostalgia, but because they can realize a higher quality of life at lower costs there, without sacrificing their salary or career. This is the real revolution of remote work."

Channel 2: Expanding the Talent Pool

For companies in demographically shrinking regions, remote work opens access to a national — and international — talent pool. A mid-sized company in Dessau looking for a senior developer might not find one locally, but could find one in Hamburg, Lisbon, or Warsaw. According to a study by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW Köln), companies offering remote positions receive on average 47 percent more applications than comparable companies with mandatory office attendance (IW Köln, 2025).

For the international talent pool, Germany is attractive through the combination of high salaries and remote opportunities: a software developer in Portugal working remotely for a German company earns a multiple of the local market salary — at low local living costs. 18 percent of positions advertised as remote in Germany are now filled with professionals living abroad (StepStone, 2025).

Channel 3: Extending Working Lives

Remote work extends the working lives of older employees. A study by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) shows that willingness to work beyond retirement age is 34 percent higher with remote work options than with pure office positions (DIW, 2025). The reasons: less commuting stress, flexible scheduling, the possibility of gradual working time reduction.

In a country where 1.4 million people over 65 are employed and 2.3 million more would like to work if conditions were right (IAB, 2025), remote work is a powerful lever. Röthig calculates: "If remote work extends the average working life by one year — a conservative estimate — that yields, for the 12.9 million baby boomers retiring by 2036, an additional work volume of 12.9 million person-years. That equals the labor force of 645,000 full-time employees — more than the entire skilled worker shortage in the care sector."

Infrastructure: The Achilles Heel of Rural Areas

Remote work only functions with reliable digital infrastructure. And this is precisely the problem: the regions that would benefit most from remote work have the worst infrastructure.

Broadband: The Rural Gap

According to the BMDV Broadband Atlas, only 38 percent of households in rural regions had a fiber-optic connection (FTTH/B) at the end of 2025 — compared to 71 percent in urban areas (BMDV, 2025). The minimum requirement for productive remote work — symmetric 50 Mbit/s download and upload — is not met in many rural communities. Video conferences break up, cloud applications load slowly, and large files become an exercise in patience.

The federal government has allocated 12 billion euros through the Gigabit Funding Program for broadband expansion in underserved areas (BMDV, 2025). Progress is measurable — the fiber-optic rate in rural areas has doubled between 2021 and 2025 — but it is not enough. Dirk Röthig warns of a missed opportunity: "Every year a rural district lacks fiber-optic access, it loses skilled workers who opt for remote work in another region. The broadband gap is not just an infrastructure problem — it is a demographic accelerant."

Co-Working Spaces: Third Places Between Home and Office

Remote work does not necessarily mean working from home. Co-working spaces — professionally equipped workspaces available for flexible rental — offer an alternative to isolated home offices. In Germany, there are approximately 2,800 co-working spaces according to the Federal Association of Coworking Spaces (BVCS) — but 72 percent of them are located in the 20 largest cities (BVCS, 2025).

For rural regions, co-working spaces are a strategic instrument: they provide professional infrastructure (fast internet, meeting rooms, printers), social interaction, and a clear separation between work and private life — the three most common complaints of home office workers. The "Smart Village" funding program of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture has supported the establishment of 180 rural co-working spaces since 2023 — a beginning, but still a niche given 4,600 rural municipalities with more than 2,000 inhabitants (BMEL, 2025).

Legal Framework: What Is Missing

Remote work in Germany is legally complex — and the complexity slows its demographic balancing effect.

No right to home office. Unlike the Netherlands, where a legal right to location-flexible work has existed since 2023 (Wet Flexibel Werken, 2023), Germany has no general right to home office. The employer decides. The "legal framework for mobile work" announced in the 2021 coalition agreement had not been implemented by early 2026.

Occupational health and documentation requirements. The Working Hours Act prescribes an eleven-hour rest period and limits daily working time to ten hours. In the home office, compliance is difficult to monitor. Occupational health documentation — risk assessment, workplace ergonomics — generates bureaucratic effort that deters small companies in particular.

Tax law and permanent establishment. When an employee permanently works from a different federal state, tax law questions about permanent establishment can arise. For cross-border remote work — from Austria or Switzerland, for example — double taxation agreements and social security regulations considerably complicate practice. Röthig knows the problem from his own experience as an internationally active entrepreneur: "When a German employee works from Austria, three tax advisors and a social security authority deal with the consequences. That is a bureaucratic tsunami that effectively prevents remote work in border regions."

Remote Work and Productivity: The Evidence

A central question for companies is: is remote work more or less productive than office work? The scientific evidence is more nuanced than the public debate suggests.

Pro remote work. A Stanford study by Bloom et al. (2024) with 1,612 employees of a technology company showed that hybrid working (three office days, two remote days) reduced quit rates by 33 percent without measurable productivity losses (Bloom et al., 2024). Employee satisfaction increased by 18 percent.

Contra remote work. A study by Atkin et al. (2024), also from Stanford, examined randomly assigned remote work at an Indian IT firm: fully remote workers were 18 percent less productive than their office colleagues. The effect was most pronounced among younger workers — a hint that missing informal learning opportunities reduce productivity (Atkin et al., 2024).

Synthesis. The meta-evidence points to a clear pattern: hybrid working — two to three remote days per week — is superior to both fully remote work and full office attendance. It combines the concentration and focus advantages of the home office with the collaboration and learning advantages of the office.

Dirk Röthig summarizes the implication for demographics: "Hybrid working is the sweet spot: it allows skilled workers to live up to 100 kilometers from the office — which expands an employer's catchment area from 30 to 300 kilometers. This is not a marginal effect — it transforms a local labor market into a regional one."

International Role Models: What Germany Can Learn

Estonia: Digital Nomad Visa. Estonia was the first country in the world to introduce a special visa for digitally working foreigners in 2020. Since then, 5,200 remote workers have used the visa — with a measurable economic effect on local services, gastronomy, and the housing market in Tallinn and Tartu (e-Estonia, 2025).

Spain: Ley de Trabajo a Distancia. Spain's 2021 remote work law comprehensively regulates remote work: cost coverage by the employer, right to disconnect, tax equality. The result: a measurable influx of remote workers to affordable regions such as Andalusia and Castile-Leon — regions that previously suffered from rural flight (INE, 2025).

Ireland: National Remote Work Strategy. Ireland's government adopted a national remote work strategy in 2021 that encompasses the development of 400 rural co-working hubs, tax incentives for remote workers, and a 20 percent target quota for remote work by 2025 (Government of Ireland, 2021). Progress is measurable: 32 percent of Irish employees worked at least partially remote in 2025 — and internal migration has reversed for the first time in decades in favor of rural regions.

Recommendations: Seven Measures for Germany

Based on the evidence and international experience, Dirk Röthig derives seven policy recommendations:

1. Fiber-optic guarantee for rural areas by 2028. Every household and every business in rural areas must have a fiber-optic connection with at least 1 Gbit/s by 2028. Funding through the existing Gigabit fund, supplemented by a broadband levy on telecommunications providers.

2. National co-working program. 1,000 rural co-working spaces by 2029, funded by the BMEL and the federal states. Location selection based on demographic urgency: regions with the sharpest population decline first.

3. Legal framework for mobile work. A legal right to discuss mobile work — not an absolute right, but an obligation for employers to seriously consider remote work requests and justify rejections. Simplification of occupational health documentation for home offices.

4. Tax simplification. Flat-rate home office regulation instead of permanent establishment review for domestic remote work. Simplified rules for cross-border remote work within the EU.

5. Remote work allowance for structurally weak regions. A tax-free allowance of 200 euros per month for employees who live in structurally weak regions and work remotely for companies in metropolitan areas — financed through the fiscal equalization system.

6. Digital skills for older workers. Targeted training programs that teach over-55s the technical skills for remote work — video conferencing, cloud tools, digital collaboration. Eligible for funding under the Qualification Opportunities Act.

7. Employer-of-record simplification. Bureaucratic hurdles for companies wanting to employ workers remotely in other EU countries must be lowered. An EU-wide employer-of-record registry would drastically simplify cross-border remote work.

Conclusion: Remote Work as a Demographic Equalizer

Demographic change is not hitting Germany as uniform shrinkage but as geographic redistribution: metropolitan areas grow, rural regions bleed out. Remote work has the potential to reverse this dynamic — not completely, but significantly. 340,000 people have returned to rural regions since 2020. Companies with remote offerings receive 47 percent more applications. Older workers' willingness to work beyond retirement age rises by 34 percent with remote options.

Dirk Röthig sums up the demographic logic: "The skilled workers exist — they just live in the wrong place. Remote work corrects this mismatch. It brings the work to the people instead of forcing the people to the work. For a country losing 700,000 workers every year, this is not a nice-to-have — it is a demographic necessity."

The prerequisites are clear: fiber-optic in rural areas, legal clarity for employers and employees, co-working infrastructure beyond the metropolises, and tax simplification. If Germany creates these conditions, remote work will evolve from a pandemic makeshift to the most important instrument against the geographic skills shortage. If not, the demographic spiral in structurally weak regions will accelerate further — with social, economic, and political consequences that extend far beyond the labor market.

More Articles by Dirk Röthig

References

  1. BBSR — Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (2024): Spatial Planning Forecast 2040 — Workforce Development by Region Type. Available at: https://www.bbsr.bund.de/BBSR/DE/forschung/fachbeitraege/raumentwicklung/raumordnungsprognose/raumordnungsprognose.html
  2. ImmoScout24 (2025): Rent Price Atlas Germany 2025. Available at: https://www.immobilienscout24.de/immobilienbewertung/ratgeber/mietpreise-und-kaufpreise/mietspiegel/
  3. ifo Institute (2026): Home Office Barometer January 2026. Available at: https://www.ifo.de/themen/homeoffice
  4. Bitkom (2025): New Work — The Future of Work. Available at: https://www.bitkom.org/Themen/Arbeitswelt-Future-of-Work
  5. IWH — Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (2025): Internal Migration and Remote Work — Regional Migration Flows Since 2020. Available at: https://www.iwh-halle.de/
  6. IW Köln — Cologne Institute for Economic Research (2025): Remote Work and Recruiting: Effects on Application Numbers and Position Filling. Available at: https://www.iwkoeln.de/studien/remote-work-recruiting
  7. StepStone (2025): Cross-Border Remote Work in Germany — Labor Market Report. Available at: https://www.stepstone.de/wissen/remote-work-international/
  8. DIW — German Institute for Economic Research (2025): Remote Work and Working Biographies: Extending Employment in Old Age. DIW Weekly Report 12/2025. Available at: https://www.diw.de/de/diw_01.c.890234.de/publikationen.html
  9. IAB — Institute for Employment Research (2025): Employment Beyond Retirement Age — Potentials and Preferences. Available at: https://www.iab.de/de/informationsservice/presse/
  10. BMDV — Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (2025): Broadband Atlas Germany 2025 — Fiber-Optic Availability by Region Type. Available at: https://www.bmvi.de/DE/Themen/Digitales/Breitbandausbau/breitbandausbau.html
  11. BVCS — Federal Association of Coworking Spaces (2025): Coworking Study 2025 — Locations and Development. Available at: https://www.bundesverband-coworking.de/studie-2025
  12. BMEL — Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2025): Smart Village — Funding Program for Digital Rural Areas. Available at: https://www.bmel.de/DE/themen/laendliche-regionen/smart-village/
  13. Bloom, N. et al. (2024): Hybrid Working from Home Improves Retention without Damaging Performance. Nature, 630, 920–925. DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07500-2
  14. Atkin, D. et al. (2024): The Return to Office and Worker Productivity: Evidence from a Natural Experiment. Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research Working Paper. Available at: https://siepr.stanford.edu/publications/working-paper/
  15. Wet Flexibel Werken (2023): Wijziging Wet Flexibel Werken — Recht op Thuiswerken. Staatsblad 2023. Available at: https://wetten.overheid.nl/
  16. e-Estonia (2025): Digital Nomad Visa — Impact Report. Available at: https://e-estonia.com/digital-nomad-visa-impact/
  17. INE — Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (2025): Migracion interior y teletrabajo — Informe 2024. Available at: https://www.ine.es/
  18. Government of Ireland (2021): Making Remote Work: National Remote Work Strategy. Available at: https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/51f84-making-remote-work-national-remote-work-strategy/

About the Author: Dirk Röthig is CEO of VERDANTIS Impact Capital, headquartered in Zug, Switzerland. As an entrepreneur and impact investor, he analyzes the economic effects of demographic change and invests in solutions that address structural bottlenecks in labor markets, infrastructure, and technology. Contact and more articles: verdantiscapital.com | LinkedIn | dirkdirk2424@gmail.com

Top comments (0)